OP Betz

This blog has moved

2007-09-24T19:42:00.000+02:00

Hi there, this blog is now defunct. Please visit my new blog Kings of War which rather than an individual blog updated erratically and episodically by me alone is a War Studies department faculty group blog. At present its contributors are me, Professor Theo Farrell and Dr Patrick Porter from the Joint Services Command and Staff College. More will join presently. If you enjoyed this blog you'll enjoy Kings of War as much or more. Thanks for visiting.

London editor prays for nuclear attack on Israel | Jerusalem Post

2007-08-29T20:12:00.000+02:00

London editor prays for nuclear attack on Israel | Jerusalem Post: "Talking about Iran's nuclear capability on ANB Lebanese television on June 27, Abd Al-Bari Atwan, editor-in-chief of Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper, said, 'If the Iranian missiles strike Israel, by Allah, I will go to Trafalgar Square and dance with delight.'"

It would be lovely if the next time the BBC has Mr Al-Bari Atwan on as a guest on a Mideast topic they would note this bloodthirstiness.

Considering a war with Iran: A discussion paper on WMD in the Middle East

2007-08-29T11:54:00.000+02:00

IranStudy082807a.pdf (application/pdf Object)

Just published by Dan Plesch and Martin Butcher of SOAS, an open-source analysis of the prospects of war with Iran. In a nutshell: a large air and missile attack is likely if not imminent.

Conventional Wisdom concerning any US attack on Iran:
a) Any attack will be limited to suspect Weapons of Mass Destruction sites and associated defences.
b) Iran will then have options to retaliate that include:
-interference with the Straits of Hormuz and oil flows, destruction of Gulf oil industry infrastructure;
-fire missiles at Gulf States, Iraq bases and Israel;
-insurrection in Iraq;
-attacks by Hizbollah and Hamas on Israel;
-insurrection in Afghanistan;
-use of sleeper cells to carry out attacks in the Gulf, Europe and the US; and
-destabilisation of Gulf states with large Shi’a populations.
c) This analysis is not convincing for the following reasons:
-Elementary military strategy requires the prevention of anticipated enemy counter-attacks. Iranian Air Force, Navy, Surface to Surface Missile and Air Defence systems would not be left intact. Although one option may be to leave regular Iranian armed forces intact and attack to destroy the regime including Revolutionary Guard, Basij and religious police. In this way regime change might be encouraged.
-President Bush will not again lay himself open to the chargeof using too little force.
-US policy is regime change by political means and prevention of nuclear weapons acquisition by all means. The only logic for restraint once war begins will be continued pressure on Iran to acquiesce to US demands through intra-war deterrence.
-Long term prevention of Iranian WMD programmes may require regime change and the reduction of Iran to a weak or failed state, since all assumptions concerning attacks on WMD sites alone conclude that Iran would merely be held back a few years.
-US military preparations and current operations against Iran indicate a full-spectrum approach to Iran rather than one confined to WMD sites alone.

Read the whole thing.

Report of views of UK troops

2007-08-24T09:52:00.000+02:00

BBC NEWS | UK | Troops argue Iraq is 'unwinnable'

Does no one at the BBC have any sense at all of their power? 'BBC Declares War is Over. Government to Report Later.'

You voted for this ridiculous war, Reid. So go fight it | Martin Samuel - Times Online

2007-08-22T12:14:00.000+02:00

You voted for this ridiculous war, Reid. So go fight it | Martin Samuel - Times Online: "As it stands, this is the British Army in the centre of some of the most inhospitable terrain on the planet, saying, for reasons that have long ceased to be understood: “Come and have a go if you think you’re hard enough.” And come they do: from Pakistan, from Iran, from Chechnya, even from the budding martyr community of Britain. There is a jihadists’ convention taking place in Helmand valley, and British soldiers are hosting it."

Guantanamo Bay Chief Prosecutor defends military commissions

2007-08-20T17:09:00.000+02:00

The Yale Law Journal - In Defense of Guantanamo Bay

There's an article in the Yale Law Journal on Guantanamo Bay written by the Chief Prosecutor, Col Morris David, which is interesting reading on its own terms and as a rare example of its type: when was the last time you saw a pro-Guantanamo piece? I have always thought the problem with Guantanamo was more about presentation than substance. So this part off the article rang home with me:

Am I ashamed of the picture I see of Guantanamo Bay and the military commissions? Absolutely not. There are those who want to sell a false and ugly picture of the facilities and the process, and they have been very successful in manipulating public opinion while we on the other side have been largely ineffective. If they continue to succeed in generating a false sense of collective shame, then perhaps public pressure will become so great that the political process will bend and cause a change of course. In my opinion, that would be unfortunate and unnecessary. Even some of the most vocal critics claim they are not soft on terrorism and do not want to set terrorists free, but they believe Guantanamo Bay and military commissions have become such liabilities that we need to look for other alternatives. Perhaps if we do a better job of educating the public about the truth, we will demonstrate that there is nothing wrong with the alternatives currently in use. We have a good story to tell, and we should not be ashamed to tell it. I see in Guantanamo a clean, safe, and humane facility to detain enemy combatants and a fair process to adjudicate the guilt or innocence of those alleged to have committed crimes defined by Congress and the laws of war.

Clearly the legal issues surrounding the Guantanamo Bay camp are complex. I'd put myself in the camp of those who think whatever the legality Guantanamo has become a massive liability. (I wonder if just constituting field tribunals of two captains and a major in the field and shooting those judged unlawful combatants would have caused less damage. Bad public diplomacy to be sure; but straightforward, cheap and legal.) That being the case, either the facility is shut down or something is done to push back on the the popular perception of it. The article in question seems an attempt to do that. Too little too late?

Information Warfare

2007-08-20T09:44:00.000+02:00

The cyberwar against the United States - The Boston Globe Interesting article here.

From Estonia to Tampa, recent events teach us that cyber-warfare is indeed a war. It must be fought harder and smarter and within the context of the broader struggle against Islamist extremism.

I am not so concerned about hacker warfare using mass denial of service attacks which this article focusses on. I think the network of information systems is robust enough to handle it. What should be concerned about is that the proliferation of Jihadi websites is a measure of the fact that we are losing the War of Ideas with Islamism. The recent book by J. Michael Waller Fighting the War of Ideas like a Real War is a more sophisticated discussion of the problem; his receommendations are quite provocative. Worth reading.

Army Reports Brass, Not Bloggers, Breach Security

2007-08-19T08:23:00.000+02:00

Army Reports Brass, Not Bloggers, Breach Security

War and Anthropology

2007-08-17T14:28:00.000+02:00

Professors on the Battlefield - WSJ.com

Also see this post by Sharon Weinberger on Danger Room 'When Anthropologists Go to War'

I think on balance this is a very good development, though Patrick Porter's recent piece in Parameters 'Good Anthropology, Bad History: The Cultural Turn in Studying War' points out that it's not all straightforward. At the end of the day why should the role of academics in war be confined to standing outside the Pentagon waving placards screaming 'You suck!'?

I love the comment at the end of the Danger Room post though: 'Doh! You just shot our anthropologist! How are we going to find a new one way out here???'

The Future of War: Attack of the Killer Robots - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

2007-08-17T01:03:00.000+02:00

The Future of War: Attack of the Killer Robots - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

Interesting article on the hastening introduction of armed 'robots' on the battlefield. The phenomenon is more advanced in the air and at sea. On land the technical challenges are much greater and the ethical dilemmas of allowing the autonomous use of deadly force vastly more prevalent. Strictly speaking with the exception of the South Korean device which may have a degree of autonomy none of these are real robots--they all have human operators. But that would seem unlikely to remain the case for long. As it says in the article:

The Pentagon also wants to give the robots more freedom, arguing that the only way to enhance the fighting power of US troops is to enable a soldier to use several unmanned systems at the same time. This is only possible if the machines are allowed to make many of their decisions independently.

Can't fault the Pentagon's logic. As so often these days I find reality is catching up with ideas explored in science fiction . In this case the Bolo novels by Keith Laumer are very relevant. The interesting thing, to me anyway, is not how the technology will impact the battlefield per se; rather it is how we will think of war when we start to share the battlefield with robots. On the one hand you have the potential for remorseless inhuman killing machines. On the other hand you have 'soldiers' whose emotional reaction to being insulted, attacked, or frightened would be nil; they wouldn't suffer psychological strain of combat and while they certainly could commit atrocities as human soldiers sometimes do why would they? In fact as the clever thing about the Bolo novels is that they explore how these huge fightng machines become progressively more sentient they actually seem to understand concepts such as duty and honour better than the humans around them.

As we come to the last weeks of summer break wind down to the start of the new school year I recommend adding a Bolo book to your summer reading.

Ralph Peters on Killing of Yazidis, Petraeus, Iraq

2007-08-16T23:41:00.000+02:00

The bodies are still piling up from Al Qaeda's massive bombing of Yazidi villages in north Iraq. I think that Peters gets is dead right in this piece on two counts: Those dead and maimed Yazidis were just props:

The intended audience was Congress... we're not really in Iraq for Iraq's sake now, but for our own. The long-mismanaged situation has morphed from a grand attempt to create a model democracy in the Middle East to become a fight for our strategic security - knocking al Qaeda down, keeping Iran out (see sidebar) and shaping a new Iraq that's at least benign where our interests are concerned.

Check out the Carbon Footprint on this baby

2007-08-16T12:29:00.000+02:00

Army Vehicle Could be Iraq's First Hybrid

There are obvious and excellent reasons why armed forces should invest in more fuel efficient vehicles. The guys driving big, soft, fuel tankers must be the loneliest orphans of the non-linear battlefield. I'm a big believer in what Richard Simpkin referred to in his classic Race to the Swift as 'Mobility of the Boot'. (Says the guy writing while sitting on his sofa). But you can't walk every place and there's just way too much gear to be carried. Mechanical transport is always going to be required and so vehicles like the above seem a good compromise.

But that's not why I'm blogging it. Truth be told: I want one! When will the civvy version of this appear? Does it come with child seats? I am at the stage in life where I need to be driving a ruggedized military vehicle called 'The Aggressor'. It helps too that it is a convertible and environmentally friendly.

Iranian Unit to Be Labeled 'Terrorist' - washingtonpost.com

2007-08-15T17:07:00.000+02:00

Iranian Unit to Be Labeled 'Terrorist' - washingtonpost.com

As much as I support and encourage confronting Iran I think designating the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization is a poor idea. The Revolutionary Guard is an agent of the state of Iran. Ipso facto whatever acts it takes to attack the armed forces and civilians of other countries are acts of war and should be regarded as such. This sort of tactic just plays the Iranian game of obscuring and avoiding responsibility.

List anonymous wikipedia edits from interesting organizations

2007-08-15T01:32:00.000+02:00

List anonymous wikipedia edits from interesting organizations

Now here's a fascinating and useful tool for the discerning worldwatcher. A CalTech grad student has created a tool which searches Wikipedia edits and correlates them with known IP addresses. Basically this means it's a lot easier to detect anonymous axe-griniding and ego-editing.

For instance running a scan on the IP addresses of the BBC reveals a change in the entry on George Walker Bush to George Wanker Bush

Rather a few changes to entries on 'Criticism of the BBC' including a significant excision of a quote from
an official report on the BBC's impartiality which rendered the entry meaningless.

A change of Palestinian 'terrorists' to 'freedom figters' in an entry on the Caterpillar D9 Bulldozer.

And a
gossipy addition to the entry on Natasha Kaplinsky 'She dumped some geezer from Meridian TV.'

I predict many, many hours of fun to be had. I don't doubt that the reason I can't run a report on the wikipedia edits of 10 Downing St right now is because the site is overloaded with every political hack in the country digging for dirt.

Islam's poison cells | The Australian

2007-08-14T17:05:00.000+02:00

Islam's poison cells | The Australian

It's hard to overstate the importance in a War of Ideas of authors like the one linked to above, former Islamists who can speak symptathetically to their co-religionists in language they can understand. Far more should be done to support such moderate Muslims as opposed to the faux-moderate Islamist mouthpieces of the MCB.

Baghdad Babylon: Hope and Despair in Divided Iraq - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

2007-08-14T16:28:00.000+02:00

There's a very good article on Iraq in the latest Der Spiegel.

Baghdad Babylon: Hope and Despair in Divided Iraq - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

The upshot of it is that things in Iraq while far from rosy are less bad than they are generally thought to be:

Ramadi is an irritating contradiction of almost everything the world thinks it knows about Iraq -- it is proof that the US military is more successful than the world wants to believe. Ramadi demonstrates that large parts of Iraq -- not just Anbar Province, but also many other rural areas along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers -- are essentially pacified today. This is news the world doesn't hear...

The Americans may or may not have turned things around. If this report is right there is hope that they might have. And if that is the case then it is worth struggling on. It reminds me of Napoleon's saying '...never despair while there remain brave men around the colors.' It sounds corny I know, but there it is. To much of contemporary society words such as 'honor and glory of arms' sound anachronistic or even oxymoronic. We're much more likely to recall Sherman's 'I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine.' But the fact is they matter as much today as ever. The likely consequences of our withdrawal in defeat from Iraq for Iraqis are bad enough, but it would be a huge setback in the wider conflict which would have knock-on effects most immediately in Afghanistan. Which looks worse than Iraq to judge from the words of Canadian Major General Lewis Mackenzie 'NATO Countries are Shirking' and British casualty figures reported in The Times Britain’s frontline soldiers have 1 in 36 chance of dying on Afghan battlefield.

Max Boot interview about Iraq, Afghanistan and the Surge

2007-08-14T11:07:00.000+02:00

I rather agree with Max Boot here on the connection between Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as on the struggle with Iran. In a nutshell, defeat in Iraq is likely to hasten the same in Afghanistan and Iran effectively has been at war with the United States since 1979.

Kiwi SAS man is awarded VC

2007-07-04T17:02:00.000+02:00

Corporal Apiata, the first New Zealander to be awarded the Victoria Cross since the Second World War, has said he was only doing his job.

He is to receive the elite award after carrying an injured colleague through enemy fire in Afghanistan.

A clearly overwhelmed Corporal Apiata said he was still trying to deal with the enormity of having received such a prestigious honour.

"I was only doing my job and looking after my mates," Corporal Apiata told a media conference in Wellington this afternoon.

"It means a lot to me, to my family and the unit itself."

Corporal Apiata said he often sees the man whose life he saved.

"Whenever I see him we catch up and have a beer. We're good mates," Corporal Apiata said.

When asked if he saw himself as a role model, he said: "I see myself as Willy Apiata. I'm just an ordinary person."

Prime Minister Helen Clark said today: "Corporal Apiata carried a severely wounded fellow soldier across open ground while coming under intense attack. He did this despite the extreme danger to himself."

Well done. The distance Corporal Apiata carried his bleeding mate to safety was 70 yards which is about the length of the hallway my office opens onto. I'm sure it looks A LOT further when you've got bullets whipping around you and a dying man on your back. I really admire the understatement of the man. It reminds me of a story about John F. Kennedy who once when asked how he became a war hero answered 'It was involuntary. They sank my boat.'

Cyberterrorism for the masses

2007-07-04T03:19:00.000+02:00

The sophisticated use of information technology, in particular the appreciation of the importance of the virtual battlefield is a hallmark of the global Islamist insurgency. This article, 'Electronic Jihad Offers Cyber-Terrorism for the Masses', at Information Week describes the creation of easy, user-friendly tools for internet hacktivists.

The latest version of Electronic Jihad software, 2.0, is designed to quickly update its list of target sites and to work with different Internet connection speeds. The application is also described as being capable of using different proxies to override government Web site blocking technology, Abdul Hameed Bakier, an intelligence expert on counterterrorism, crisis management, and terrorist-hostage negotiations, wrote in a recent report for the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington, D.C., think tank established on Sept. 11, 2003, to study and analyze global terrorism. “In the past, different jihadi groups practiced cyberattacks on anti-Islamic websites, but they were never able to sustain a long, organized campaign,” Bakier wrote in the June 26 edition of Jamestown’s weekly Terrorism Focus publication. He noted that Al-jinan is not only operating continuously but is developing new techniques to enhance the technology and methods of promoting electronic jihad. “With the spreading use of the Internet in the Arab and Islamic world, the number of users engaged in some form of electronic jihad is likely to increase substantially,” he added.

In addition to supplying the online weapons for cyberattack, the Al-jinan site also serves as a forum for learning attack techniques as well as other information that can be used in electronic jihad efforts. One emphasis is on the need for jihadis to organize synchronized mass cyberattacks on Web sites that they believe are critical of Islam. Electronic Jihad users set up an account name and password, which lets the site register the number of hours the user spends attacking targets and post the names of those who scored the highest. One attacker spent the equivalent of 70 days attacking sites.

The 'Long War' is above all a battle of ideas. That being the case it is foolish to dismiss these attempts to win that battle of ideas through intimidation and disruption.

Why graduate studies are important for officers

2007-07-04T00:19:00.000+02:00

Forwarded to me by a friend is this recent article in the National Interest 'Beyond the Cloister' by Gen David Petraeus in which he makes the case for why officers ought to take part in civilian graduate studies. In a nutshell, because it:

1. Takes military officers out of their intellectual comfort zones;

2. Provides exposure to diverse and divergent views;

3. Provides specific skills and knowledge on which an officer may draw during his or her career;

4. Assists officers to develop and refine their communications skills;

5. Contributes to critical thinking skills; and,

6. Imparts a degree of intellectual humility.

Music to my ears of course, since I make my living running a masters programme the purpose of which is to provide just such things to people, such as but not exclusively, military officers whose occupational responsibilities tend to preclude taking a year out to live in central London as a residential student. Says Petraeus:

The most powerful tool any soldier carries is not his weapon but his mind. These days, and for the days ahead as far as we can see, what soldiers at all ranks know is liable to be at least as important to their success as what they can physically do. Some key questions before the U.S. military in changing times therefore must be: How do we define the best military education for the U.S. armed forces, and what are the best ways to impart that education? What should be the ideal relationship between soldiering and the schoolhouse?

Excellent question. Indeed I'm writing a paper for a Marine Corps conference on Pedagogy for the Long War just now on this question which perhaps no doubt I'll share with readers of this blog (all two of you). But, as my wry and always on target friend points out, an equally interesting question is whether and to what extent the relationship is two way. If it's such a great idea for warfighters to have experience of academia is it equally useful for academics to have experience of warfighting? I wonder if Petraeus has this somewhere in the back of his mind unconsciously; otherwise why title it 'Beyond the Cloisters' instead of 'Beyond the Barracks' which actually would have made sense?

That said, I reckon that if I walked into a British Army recruiting station as a 38 year old ex-Canadian Forces reservist I'd be quietly directed to the exit for geriatrics and lunatics and rightly so. Still I can't help thinking that if Petraeus really is right in the basic premise expressed in his first sentence that the most powerful weapon is the mind then the future ought to see the targeting for recruitment of the mature if not elderly. The main problem with maturity and wisdom is its strong correlation with physical decrepitude (or in my case more precisely expanding waistline); hence fresh-faced 18 year olds are still on the whole rather better soldierly material than deep-thinking 38 year olds, or 78 year olds for that matter. Yet the march of technological progress will change this; in fact we are already seeing a sort of such a convergence as recruitment ages rise and phsyical requirements diminish. The idea is explored a fair bit in science fiction novels such as Old Man's War by John Scalzi, and (my personal favourite) A Boy and his Tank by Leo Frankowski, both of which deal with protagonists enticed to join the military and to fight by the chance of a second healthy life, if only they can survive the term of service. But it's not so far as I am aware something which the military is thinking about which is odd when you think about it. If you're accustomed already to thinking about the technology of weapons systems and platforms such as aircraft carriers which you expect to last for 50 years or so, why assume (if we really are on the cusp of a Bio-tech revolution) that the current physical parameters will be constant and not variable?

Come back Blair

2007-07-02T18:00:00.000+02:00

I just have one question. Why did you not say this when you were still Prime Minister?

In his most outspoken remarks on Islamists, the former Prime Minister warns that Britain is in danger of losing the battle against terrorists unless mainstream society confronts the threat.

Blair's remarks, in which he also attacks some civil liberty campaigners as 'loopy loo', were made in a Channel 4 documentary recorded last Tuesday on the eve of his departure from Downing Street.

'The idea that as a Muslim in this country that you don't have the freedom to express your religion or your views, I mean you've got far more freedom in this country than you do in most Muslim countries,' Blair told Observer columnist Will Hutton, who presents the documentary.

'The reason we are finding it hard to win this battle is that we're not actually fighting it properly. We're not actually standing up to these people and saying, "It's not just your methods that are wrong, your ideas are absurd. Nobody is oppressing you. Your sense of grievance isn't justified."'

Understanding Current Operations in Iraq

2007-06-27T10:31:00.000+02:00

David Kilcullen reports from the field on current operations in Iraq in Small Wars Journal.

Also in the same journal a piece by Frank Hoffman on Neo-Coin which is a must read. Hoffman zeroes in on what I think is the key issue in Neo-Coin: the competition for perceptions. (He also quotes me on FM 3-24 which is nice).

As it happens we had a workshop here in the Department of War Studies organized by my colleague Dr John Mackinlay and myself which looked at the new British COIN doctrine which is being drafted. My job was to look at the 'Virtual Battlefield: Redefining Propaganda of the Deed in 2007'. Here's how I started my talk:

Implicit in the title of my talk is the idea that the contemporary operations environment with which the counterinsurgent commander is concerned has two dimensions: the literal, physical field of battle in which bullets fly, bombs explode and blood is shed, sometimes yours, sometimes theirs but most times and in greatest volume by those stuck in the middle; and the virtual, informational realm in which belligerents contend with words and images to manufacture narratives which are more compelling than those of the other side and better at structuring the responses of others to the development of events.

To begin, therefore, I wish to quote approvingly the words of General Rupert Smith in his perceptive work, The Utility of Force:

We now come to the manner in which we fight and operate amongst the people in a wider sense: through the media… Whoever coined the phrase ‘the theatre of operations’ was very prescient. We are conducting operations now as though we are on stage, in an amphitheatre or Roman arena. There are two or more sets of players—both with a producer, the commander, each of whom has his own idea of the script. On the ground, in the actual theatre, they are all on the stage and mixed up with people trying to get to their seats, the stage hands, the ticket collectors and the ice-cream vendors. At the same time they are being viewed by a partially and factional audience, comfortably seated, its attention focused on that part of the auditorium where it is noisiest, watching the events by peering down the drinking straws of their soft-drink packs—for that is the extent of the vision of a camera.

Then I shall make three assertions which I shall endeavour to defend as I go on and in the discussion which follows. The first assertion is that the virtual now dominates the real. ‘Successful’ operations on the ground make no difference if they are not translated into advancements of one’s strategic narrative in the informational realm. This, it seems to me was well illustrated in a recent Los Angeles Times article which described the tour of General Mattis through Marine outposts in Al Anbar province. Mattis was asked by a sergeant ‘How are we supposed to fight a war when people back home say we've already lost?’ Mattis gave the best answer he could under the circumstances to his soldier: believe your own eyes, ignore the press. But at the end of the day this will not cut it. At the end of the coming months when the success or failure of the operation known as 'The Surge' is judged, the morale state of the Marines in Anbar will not count for much if the people at home have been convinced the thing is a lost cause.

I am sure if we put our minds together we could come up with a very long list of recent examples in which perception of events trumps the reality; arguably this has always been the case in military history—if it were I would not be surprised; but the immediacy of the virtual battlefield, its proximity to the centre of gravity in COIN (that being the frontal lobes of the people both in the ‘theatre’, as Rupert Smith describes, and at home as I would argue), and the low level of Western public commitment to these conflicts makes for a large qualitative difference between COIN now in the Information Age and COIN before it.

This leads to the second assertion I would like to make which is that contemporary COIN is an Information Operation with a military annex (among a multitude of other annexes some of which may supersede it).

The third assertion I would like to make is that we are failing at COIN now because we fail to recognize the truth of the above. We act as though Information Operations are the annex whereas the other side treats it with resolute consistency as the main event to which everything else is subordinate with the effect that with relatively few exceptions we concede the virtual battle.

Britain and Iran

2007-06-22T15:59:00.000+02:00

The defence minister issued a report a couple of days ago about the capture of UK Marines and sailors a while back. It says, in a nutshell: mistakes were made, but not by anybody particularly. That's it then; nothing to see here move on. Well, no. It's not like this was the first time. Iran captured 6 UK sailors and Marines and forced them to confess to incursion into its territory in June 2004. Now the BBC reports Iran had also earlier tried unsuccessfully to capture an Royal Australian Navy boarding party:

The Australians, though, to quote one military source, "were having none of it". The BBC has been told the Australians re-boarded the vessel they had just searched, aimed their machine guns at the approaching Iranians and warned them to back off, using what was said to be "highly colourful language".

The defence minister clearly wants to be done with the political embarrassment of all this but something is rotten here and needs to be fixed. Why does the Naby keep making thsi same mistake? I agree more and more with Norman Podhoretz on this.

Update: I missed somehow this interview in the Times with General Petraeus which is really worth reading. Here's the interesting part as far as this discussion goes:

Who was behind the kidnapping of five Britons in Baghdad last month and what is being done to free them?

"We think that it is the same network that killed our soldiers in Kerbala in an operation back in January. We killed the head of that network less than a week before the operation that detained those British civilians. It was already planned and carried out by his followers. It is a secret cell of Jaish al-Mahdi (Mahdi Army) not all of which are under control of Moqtadr al-Sadr. That is the assessment at this point."

“They are not rank and file Jaish al-Mahdi. They are trained in Iran, equipped with Iranian (weapons), and advised by Iran. The Iranian involvement here we have found to be much, much more significant that we thought before. They have since about the summer of 2004 played a very, very important role in training in Iran, funding, arming."

"This is lethal stuff, like EFPs (explosively-formed penetrators), mortars, and rockets that are used against Basra Palace (the main British base in Basra). There is also a degree of direction, not in a strategic way but in tactical operations. We captured a wealth of documentation which showed how they account for what they have done, we assume so they can get paid for it, and get additional funding."

The evidence that Iran is backing with arms, training and funds attacks against US and British is frankly overwhelming.

What ever happened to common sense?

2007-06-20T20:19:00.000+02:00

Politicians reacted in disbelief to the revelation that for over two hours yesterday, the BBC News website carried a request for people in Iraq to report on troop movements.The request was removed from the website after it sparked furious protests that the corporation was endangering the lives of British servicemen and women. But according to accounts last night, a story on a major operation by US and Iraqi troops against al-Qa'eda somewhere north of Baghdad contained an extraordinary request for information about the movement of troops. Last night the BBC confirmed the wording of the request was: "Are you in Iraq? Have you seen any troop movements? If you have any information you would like to share with the BBC, you can do so using the form below."

I'd put this down to rank stupidity rather than malicious intent but really are there no editors at the BBC with even a fraction of a clue? Is it so hard to see that this sort of information could get troops, British troops, hurt or killed?

Update: John Kelly is my kind of guy! Read

How to move a book on Amazon

2007-06-18T23:46:00.000+02:00

I feel utterly compelled to get myself a copy of The Satanic Verses which I see is now number 11 in the Amazon UK rankings of sales 20 years after it was first published, even though I can't for the life of me imagine myself actually reading it. Why? Crap like this, this and this and this.

My Grand Narrative can Beat your Grand Narrative

2007-06-18T10:43:00.000+02:00

My good friend Chris Ankersen has the annoying habit of being smarter and better written than me. (Thankfully I am better looking). Here's his take on the Michael Vlahos piece Fall of Modernity which I linked to earlier:

I came lately across a very interesting article which has been making the rounds, partly because it has been referred to by David Kilcullen, the current 'Brad Pitt' of the counterinsurgency world. Its title, 'The Fall of Modernity,' perhaps occludes the strength of its message. It paints a convincing picture that the age of American/Western supremacy is coming to the beginning of its end (compare, according to the article, today with Rome in the 3rd Century AD/CE: Empire is not over, but getting there). This message, and many others associated with an Imperial theme, are not new. Micheal Vlahos, of a Johns Hopkins-based think-tank, does a particularly good job in this rendition, however, and the article is worth reading for the sophisticated-yet-clearly

-explained concepts he introduces: Fall of Modernity.

What is most interesting, though, is that Vlahos implicates the American project in the downfall of the American project. This is not typical conservative thinking; indeed it resonates more with Marxian theory. You know the story: capitalism is capitalism's own worst enemy, and its own contradictions will eventually bring about its dissolution (contradictions such as its production of poor people at the same time that it makes others obscenely wealthy). The result is a rather all-consuming sense that 'it doesn't really matter what we do, because we are locked in our own death spiral'. In his words:

"We declare that “resistance is futile,” yet the opposite is true. The bigger we make the enemy, the bigger they become. Ours is the complicity of backhand legitimization. Whether we admit this or shout the reverse, effectively our war narrative works to set up superpower defeat—even if at first it seems only a drama of defeat played out in the media—because with one stroke, our narrative itself will have become a lie. This is doubly destructive. Not only do we fail myth—what are we? the D-list to the Greatest Generation—but myth is no longer there for us. World War II cannot save us because according to the strictures of our own myth, we are no longer worthy of being saved."

Of course, such 'defeatist' talk is rife amongst the chattering classes, the media, and the academy. But, if we look at one of the sources cited in Vlahos's footnotes, it is not difficult to see from whence Vlahos derives his pessimism. He includes a link to a PowerPoint presentation made by member of the US Joint Staff, which explains the US strategy in the war against terror. It is worth a look, but will not inspire confidence. Seen after reading Vlahos's piece, it will almost seem a caricature, and a bad one at that.

If (and of course we must cling to idea, as Dickens's Scrooge did, that the future is conditional, not predetermined), Vlahos is correct, there are a number of implications. Not the least among them is that perfecting the tactics of the war on terror is akin to re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic (a metaphor which is acceptable, perhaps, due to the passage of 90 years since the catastrophe. A parallel metaphor, say 'remembering to turn the lights off in the World Trade Centre', jangles our sensitivities). It certainly makes the work of those such as Kilcullen and Petreas far more difficult and maybe just a little beside the point.

If the big picture is as badly and as baldly out of whack as Vlahos claims, we need more than fine tuning. But is it possible to generate a new Grand Narrative, one sufficiently big enough to counter the growing one of Alterity, supposedly the source of strength for our current enemies? One pure enough not to be brought to its knees through its own corrosion? One catchy enough to enlighten the masses 'at home and abroad'? Is such a trick possible 'on the fly' and if so, how long does it take and how do we do it? Vlahos, of course, points out that the need to 'beat' the other side with a bigger, better argument is part of the problem. His conclusion seems to point to a very postmodern position: not domination, but co-existance; plurality and indeterminacy, not monopoly and certainty. Not a single, or even an opposing pair of Grand Narratives, but rather many less sure, more fungible claims.

As usual, the question returns to the eternal 'Quid tunc?'

Gaza meltdown

2007-06-15T17:55:00.000+02:00

Here's a good article by Martin Indyk in the Washington Post on the takeover of Gaza by Hamas
which goes beyond the obvious: A Two-State Solution Palestinian Style.

Whither Atlanticism?

2007-06-15T16:32:00.000+02:00

It is interesting to read back to back these two articles Why we must break with the American crazies by Anatole Kaletsky in The Times and Come together, right now by Margarita Mathiopoulos in the International Herald Tribune. Well, I question Kaletsky's judgment here. Iran's President waxes lyrical about wiping Israel off the map, claims a green aura surrounded him and entranced his audience when he spoke at the UN, and eagerly awaits the arrival of the 13th 'Hidden' Imam, and it's Americans he calls crazy? Riiight.

To be fair he seems to be referring to specific American neo-cons as crazy not Americans in general in which vein he notes the recent piece by Norman Podhoretz The Case for Bombing Iran as being especially nutty. I've held the view for a long time that we should use a range of measures covert and overt (including bombing) against Iran which is not to say I agree entirely with Podhoretz's argument. I think the characterization of the Cold War as WWIII and therefore the current 'Long War' as WWIV is misleading and unhelpful (see Timothy Garton Ash's A long war? No, a long struggle). His claim that Iran puts religious objectives before national interest is not supported by the actual evidence of its relations with neighbouring states (for example its quiet backing of Christian Armenia in its war with Shi'a Muslim Azerbaijan; see the work of Ali Ansari including this Guardian piece Only the US Hawks can save the Iranian president now), and I'm almost certain that this story about the UK government's handling of the recent kidnapping of its sailors by Iran is an urban legend:

But then, as if this show of impotence were not humiliating enough, the British were unable even to mobilize any of that soft power. The European Union, of which they are a member, turned down their request to threaten Iran with a freeze of imports. As for the UN, under whose very auspices they were patrolling the international waters in which the sailors were kidnapped, it once again showed its true colors by refusing even to condemn the Iranians. The most the Security Council could bring itself to do was to express “grave concern.” Meanwhile, a member of the British cabinet was going the Security Council one better. While registering no objection to propaganda pictures of the one woman hostage, who had been forced to shed her uniform and dress for the cameras in Muslim clothing, Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt pronounced it “deplorable” that she should have permitted herself to be photographed with a cigarette in her mouth. “This,” said Hewitt, “sends completely the wrong message to our young people.”

She didn't actually say that. Did she? We aren't that badly governed are we? Still, Podhoretz's argument is not crazy and Kaletsky's characterization of it as such is sloppy and lazy. What does he propose to do differently with Iran? More of the same (which is to say nothing)?

Here's what Mathipoulos says:

We in Europe need to wake up to the reality that we cannot afford a weak America.

Far from enhancing Europe's position in global affairs, America's failures have also been ours, from securing peace in the Middle East to curbing Iran's quest for nuclear weapons.

Conversely, success has come to us when Europe and the United States have acted in close partnership, whether it was winning the Cold War or building a global economy.

I agree.

Defeat: A self-fulfilling prophecy

2007-06-14T10:24:00.002+02:00

I happen to be reading a British Army document on counterinsurgency at the moment. It says in one place that

Experience has shown that in any insurgency about 90% of the population do not support either side and generally remain neutral in their affiliations until one side is perceived to be winning.

This makes execellent intuitive sense: you have momentum so long as people think that aligning their wishes with yours is more likely to lead to their fulfillment than aligning them with the other side. In practice establishing common goals is fiendishly difficult particularly when your own strategic narrative is incoherent. Listen to this fascinating interview with Dr David Kilcullen, counterinsurgency advisor to Gen Petraeus, on the issueof winning te battle of competing narratives.

Getting back to the doctrine, it seems to me that the statement does not go far enough. It's not merely the perceptions of those in the theatre of conflict which are vital; the perceptions of one's own domestic base is equally important. AQ understands very well that insurgency and counterinsurgency are Information Operations with a military annex and plans and chooses its battles accordingly; I think we are begining to understand this but there's a long way to go yet. For obvious reasons the military is chary of any talk of the management of the domestic perceptions of the conflict. But the fact is that the real target of AQ's operations is the frontal lobe of the Western voter; that being the case ceding this vital battlefield is strategically suicidal. Clearly soldiers grasp this. On a tour through Marine outposts in Al Anbar province Gen Mattis* was asked by a sergeant

How are we supposed to fight a war when people back home say we've already lost?

Read the article. Mattis gave the best answer he could under the circumstances: believe your own eyes, ignore the press. But at the end of the day, or rather at the end of the coming months when the success or failure of the 'surge' is judged, the morale state of the Marines in Anbar won't count for much if the people at home have been convinced the thing is a lost cause.

*Incidentally, I met him at a conference last week. He was, as a colleague put it, as charming as only a hard-bitten Marine can be.

One other thing, aside from our own Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman whose recent Adelphi paper The Transformation of Strategic Affairs is a must read, the guru of 'strategic narratives' is the Johns Hopkins Professor Michael Vlahos. His article on the bankruptcy of the Long War and GWOT narratives, The Long War, A self-defeating prophecy, is very worthwhile, as is his longer piece in The American Conservative, The Fall of Modernity which begins

We are losing our wars in the Muslim world because our vision of history is at odds with reality. This is a well-established condition of successful societies, a condition that inevitably grows more worrisome with time and continuing success. In fact, what empires have most in common is how their sacred narratives come to rule their strategic behavior—and rule it badly. In America’s case, our war narrative works against us to promote our deepest fear: the end of modernity.

'For it’s Tommy this, an’ Tommy that...'

2007-06-13T17:45:00.000+02:00

If you are not reading Michael Yon's dispatches from Iraq then you are missing something very good. At the moment he is embedded with the Queen's Royal Lancers on the border near Iran. The latest dispatch Death or Glory Part III of IV begins rather depressingly with:

American soldiers think our press is bad to them, but we get off light compared to the Brits. One British soldier told me that when he made a journey of several hours across London, in uniform, not a single person acknowledged him. I said he should go to America where British soldiers are always welcome.

I must admit this observation rings true with me. The British public does not seem to care to be very aware of the remarkable bravery and professionalism of it's citizens in uniform which is, well, it's just appalling. On the other hand I can't remember the last time I saw someone in military uniform where I live or near where I work in Central London. I wonder if there's some cause and effect there?

This site Support our Soldiers seems a worthy way to make your thanks count. Of course the Americans always seem to take these things to the next level. That said, I think Adopt a Sniper is also a worthy effort. I wonder if my vicar will let me put their flyer up? Hmmm...

Wolfowitz resigns. Who is to head the World Bank?

2007-05-18T16:10:00.000+02:00

Paul Wolfowitz is to resign as head of the World Bank. Personally, I think it is a stitch up as is described in this Wall Street Journal feature The Wolfowitz Files from a while back. Oh well. So the question is who should be the next head of the World Bank. There is someone qualified who is in between jobs: why Tony Blair should head the WB.

Keep up the good work!

2007-05-18T16:03:00.000+02:00

Via a friend who has been feeding me things to post on my poor negelected blog:

Professor Sees Parallels Between Things, Other Things

I've not yet achieved the illustrious rank of Professor so I'm picturing my esteemed colleague Theo Farrell, Professor of War in the Modern World, demonstrating the parallels between things and, ummm, other things with the appropriate hand gestures.

Wikipedia

2007-04-26T15:20:00.002+02:00

Oliver Kamm, Stephen Pollard, whom I read regularly and admire, and many others, including Wikipedia itself have weighed in recently with criticism of Wikipedia. Previously I have written approvingly of Wikipedia and I remain generally positive about it. The only thing that I would change in that earlier post would be to emphasize more strongly that Wikipedia is not about to overtake Britannica or any other encyclopedia any time soon, if ever. The point remains, however, that it is always a bad idea to cite encyclopedias which are superb starting points for research but not enough on their own.

I think that the critics are missing some important points, however. The most important in my mind being the fact that like it or not Wikipedia, or something like it, is not going away so long as we have the Internet. Collaborative knowledge-building via the Web is here to stay. Whether or not it displaces established encyclopedias remains to be seen--I doubt it will, as I said above. Therefore critics are pissing against the wind which is a good way to get your trousers wet but bothers the wind not at all.

Pollard says that Wikipedia is inaccurate on every topic he knows something about. Yet he declines to correct any of it, even the entry on himself which contains glaring errors. Which is sort of a problem. If elites can't be bothered to input even minimally, then they haven't got much of a platform for complaining about it. There's an interesting discussion/debate on wikipedia on languagelabunleashed. Just over halfway through one of the discussants says 'it is incumbent upon us to engage with Wikipedia and a mistake to step behind and let it pass.' I have to agree.

I recall immediately after the 7/7 bombings occurred here in London Professor Michael Clarke called an emergency meeting of the War Studies Department staff to compare notes on what had happened as, naturally enough, journalists in large numbers began to call looking for commentary and analysis. (My moment of surreality came when asked urgently by a BBC reporter over the phone what I thought was happening while I was scanning the BBC website trying to figure out what I thought was happening.) After the meeting I looked at the Wikipedia entry on '7 July 2005 London bombings' in the first few hours afterwards was by far the best and most comprehensive account available.

In short, Wikipedia is not an encyclopedia although it has some value as one, and it's not a news source although it had an edge as a collector of links over traditional sources in that instance (and presumably others), it's something else which by and large I think is significant and useful and bound to get more so. On the other hand, one thing that bothers me is the tendency I have noticed recently for Google searches on all sorts of topics to return Wikipedia entries as the first hit. What's up with that? Given that is happening, however, it makes it all the more important that those who want to lead and inform debate get more involved in this sort of social media instead of just bitching about it and hoping it will go away.

Stop coming to work and save the planet

2007-04-24T12:20:00.000+02:00

As I'm working at home today and have spent the morning happily and productively teaching on-line, marking and clearing up some administration this proposal makes perfect sense to me:

The Institute of Directors is calling for flexible hours and more home working to help tackle global warming.

For what it's worth I think the Cult of Global Warming is increasingly, well, cult-like, and therefore my desire to work from the comfort of my sofa has nothing to do with 'saving the planet' and everything to do with the facts that: a) I get more done, and b) it doesn't require me to contribute a penny to the bulging coffers of First Great Western, undoubtedly the worst rail company in Britain.

Boris Yeltsin dies at 76

2007-04-23T16:00:00.000+02:00

At the risk of turning this blog into a series of none-too-positive notes on the passing of various figures Boris Yeltsin has died. I frequently wonder whether Russia's chances for real democratic change were ever very good. There is an awful inertia in Russia's political history towards autocracy and the reification of the power of the state over the individual which suggests the chances were always iffy. But what chances there were squelched by this drunken vandalous buffoon of a president whose historic contributions include precipitately dismantling the USSR to obtain primacy of 'democratic' power in his own corner of it, bombing his own parliament in October 1993 when it challenged him and subsequently rewriting the Constitution which enshrined the president as Tsar-in-all-but-name, selling off the choicest assets of the state at fire-sale price to the bare-knuckled 'entrepreneurs' we now refer to as the 'Oligarchs' while impoverishing everyone else, launching, and then bungling, and then eschewing any responsibility, for the Chechen war which goes on still, and finally anointing as his successor Vladimir Putin, who while a man whose sobriety is a welcome contrast has as his major achievement the imposition of a veneer of competence to a basically kleptocratic authoritarian Russia headed slowly but inexorably from the ash-heap of history to the ash-heap beneath the ash-heap of history.

Kurt Vonnegut dies: 'So it goes'

2007-04-12T16:23:00.001+02:00

Kurt Vonnegut has died. I remember being impressed by Vonnegut, particularly his 'searing' anti-war novel Slaughterhouse Five, because my teachers were so wholeheartedly of the belief that it was to be impressed by and I was eager to please. It took me a while to screw up the courage to tell my High School English teacher that I thought the book was full of empty aphorisms, incomprehensible and dull (well, I paraphrase, what I probably said was 'this sucks. I'm getting a lot more out of this Conan book', literary criticism not being my forte. I think Catch 22 by Joseph Heller, a colleague of Vonnegut, was a much better satire of World War 2. But the all time best satirical book on war was Jaroslav Hasek's Good Soldier Svejk.

BBC!

2007-04-08T21:34:00.000+02:00

Every Briton who owns a TV is required to pay a licence fee of £127 per year. It's a legal mugging that enrages me more and more. Wonder why? This says it all.

Sun Tzu's Art of War

2007-04-04T19:37:00.000+02:00

Yesterday I was part of a panel discussion on Sun Tzu's classic The Art of War on BBC Radio 3's excellent programme Night Waves. I'm told it will air on the Thursday after Easter if you'd like to listen. It should be available on-line as well. I haven't heard it so I hope I don't sound too daft. But I had a lot of fun doing it. Night Waves is rather like a very good seminar.

I hadn't actually thought much systematically about Sun Tzu before I went on so I wrote a little essay (as one does) on it. I think I said a few of these things, but sadly I think I write more clearly than I speak.

Sun Tzu’s Relevance to Contemporary Warfare

Talking points for BBC R3 ‘Nightwaves’

Dr David J. Betz
Department of War Studies,
King’s College London

3 April 2007

The importance of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War to contemporary military operational matters rests on three famous and well-known quotes. This is not to say that there is not much else in the work of great worth, but one can be tolerably certain that most strategists nowadays will be well familiar with three maxims particularly.

The first,

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
The Art of War, Chapter III

This quote is often repeated approvingly in military circles because it captures the essence of the currently very popular idea that in modern warfare information is the ‘force multiplier’ par excellence. If you take two opponents equal in every way in terms of numbers, quality of equipment, and tactical technique, except one is equipped with profoundly superior and more accurate information, or ‘dominant batttlespace knowledge’, to use the jargon, then you may expect that side to win handily. This is, for instance, in part how the lopsided outcome of the 1991 Gulf War and the March-April 2003 ‘main combat operations’ phase of the Iraq War have been explained: the blundering military ineptitude of Saddam Hussein merely heightened the lopsidedness of what was an entirely predictable outcome.

Essentially, this first maxim fits very well with the until-very-recently quite popular in military-analytical circles idea that we are in the midst of a ‘Revolution in Military Affairs’. Just as our economic, political and social systems are being transformed by the advent of the Information Age so too are our military forces being transformed. This concept has lost some of its luster in the wake of the Iraq War where the relatively small and light, fast-moving and hard-hitting US and UK forces which so adroitly caused the collapse of the regime of Saddam Hussein found themselves with feet of clay in the aftermath. Nonetheless, it is still current in policy and drives thinking on military procurement decisions in most Western countries (and China). The gist of the Revolution in Military Affairs concerns three key factors or enabling technologies:

• Precision guided weapons which allow attacks to be conducted highly precisely and selectively;
• Advanced sensors which are integral to the generation of a sophisticated, accurate and near real time awareness of all militarily significant movements on the battlefield; and,
• Advanced communications which permit the dissemination of this knowledge throughout one’s own force with the effect that it develops a common situational awareness.

Together, it is argued, these three things give advanced military forces immense advantages over less advanced ones. To illustrate: Imagine a chess game in which one player can see all the pieces while the other can see only his own—and not always even that much reliably. In such a situation you would expect that the side with a better view would win every time, even if it deployed fewer and less individually effective pieces. That is the thrust of the Revolution in Military Affairs: it’s the ultimate hilltop observation post; armed forces can get lighter and less numerous without sacrificing the ability to generate raw combat power if they possess a distinct knowledge advantage over their opponents. It should be obvious why those who advocate this position now find what Sun Tzu said more than 20 centuries ago about knowing oneself and one’s enemy highly congenial.

Of course this line of argument has lost much rhetorical force since April 2003 when the conflict in Iraq shifted into an unconventional mode in which the other side ceased to move and fight in a manner which ‘advanced sensors’ could discern as militarily significant. Insurgents blend into the landscape both geographic and human and in this sort of situation numbers—‘boots on the ground’—still count for a great deal. Stand-off firepower is a superb tool for killing people and breaking things at low cost to oneself, but it’s not much use in securing an area of operations and returning a semblance of civil life to an area which combat operations have disrupted. Unfortunately, for the US and UK it is this which will determine victory in the war in Iraq because the winning of battles does not, ipso facto, mean the achievement of one’s desired political outcome.

One might expect that Sun Tzu had lost a measure of appeal as a result of this. In fact, that is not the case because his appeal and special relevance has other dimensions which can be seen in his second oft-quoted maxim:

Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.
The Art of War, Chapter III

To understand why Sun Tzu wrote this one needs to understand the environment in which he was writing which was a time of constant strife between the various Chinese kingdoms. In his time the enemy of the day could be the ally tomorrow and the enemy again the day after. Defeat was never final and the constant shifting of alliances made it vital that one carefully preserved one’s forces and did not gamble them on a single throw of the dice—because there was never a single throw! Moreover, force had to be applied in a much calibrated way, enough to achieve one’s aim without unduly inflaming the desire for revenge on the part of the defeated or too much fear and envy on the part of onlooking other powers. History, contrary to the old adage, never repeats itself; but it does show recurrent patterns and in a certain sense Sun Tzu’s time shows commonality with our own.

The zeitgeist of our time, at least in the West, is to a greater or lesser degree characterized by a sensitivity to casualties, both our own and the enemy’s, and an eagerness to avoid the disruption of ‘normal’ affairs on which our prosperity rests and which combat, particularly major combat, inevitably entails. This makes Sun Tzu for us an appealing prism through which to look at and conceptualize contemporary warfare. Certainly, most strategists would now take the view that the ‘Long War’ against ‘Islamic Fascism’ with which we are now faced is not going to be won purely, or even principally, by military means. Sun Tzu speaks to that part of ourselves which sees fighting and killing the ‘enemy’ (itself an ambiguous concept now) as insufficient on its own and in fact in some ways when crudely applied somewhat counter-productive.

There is a tendency here to draw a contrast between Sun Tzu and the 19th century Prussian Carl von Clausewitz on this point, not surprisingly because Clausewitz famously wrote that,

War therefore is an act of violence intended to compel our opponent to fulfill our will.
On War, Book I, Chapter I

The most efficacious way to do this, Clausewitz suggested, was to destroy the enemy’s army, to disarm him and remove his ability to resist. Traditionally, ‘Clausewitzeans’ have shown great concern with ‘decisive battle’, a single engagement in which the maximum force is brought to bear in order to bring the war to a conclusion and thereby achieve the aim for which it was fought. On its own this proscription is problematic. In its raw state it rings home less truly than does Sun Tzu’s admonition. I’d hasten to add, however, that this should not be taken as an excuse to throw aside Clausewitz or to criticize ‘Clausewitzeans’ because in fact Clausewitz’s meaning is more complex and his intentions more nuanced. The ‘headline’ understanding of Clausewitz is, however, superficially cruder than the ‘headline’ understanding of Sun Tzu. In fact, speaking as a scholar of warfare I would argue strongly that Clausewitz’s On War is the canonical work with Sun Tzu’s Art of War as an increasingly useful companion. The contrasts and putative juxtapositions are more apparent than real.

There are in comparison to other fields such as economics or politics precious few ‘philosophers’ of war. Politics has Plato, Hobbes, Locke and so on. Economics has Smith and Marx and Friedman. War has just Clausewitz and to a lesser extent Sun Tzu (maybe Machiavelli crosses over too). In other words, the field is not large. Amid the multitude of tactical manuals and quasi-philosophical ruminations of famous generals from Vegetius to Napoleon only Sun Tzu and Clausewitz stand out for the attempt to understand war as a whole phenomenon. This explains why they have such a prominent place in military education where they are both much talked about, albeit less frequently read. Sun Tzu obviously has much influence on contemporary Chinese military thought. The Art of War was also highly admired in Russia, having been translated into Russian and put to use by the Imperial General staff by the 1860s. While the recognition of Sun Tzu’s merit came later in the West the enthusiasm for him has been no less. His third famous maxim is particularly important here,

In all fighting, the direct method may be used for joining battle, but indirect methods will be needed in order to secure victory.
The Art of War, Chapter V

Sun Tzu could fairly be described as the originator of the ‘Indirect Approach’ in warfare, a notion popularized and expanded by the British strategist Basil Liddell-Hart, which has since become what we now refer to as ‘manoeuvre warfare’ which is essentially the doctrinal orthodoxy of all the major military powers today.

Sun Tzu is also highly relevant to ‘small wars’ (ie., ‘unconventional wars’). Indeed, one of his most influential translators was the US Marine Brigadier General, and student of Oxford University, Samuel B. Griffiths who was a leading figure in the ‘Small Wars’ community of the Marine Corps (and therefore, since the US Army has habitually eschewed such forms of warfare, could be described as a leading figure in American thought on small wars). Among Griffith’s other translations was Mao Zedong’s classic book On Guerrilla Warfare which, unsurprisingly, is also steeped in Sun Tzu’s thinking. Indeed, Mao is reputed to have memorized The Art of War. One could argue that the manner in which Mao fought and won the Chinese civil war constitutes the prototype of modern insurgency of which the current ‘Global Insurgency’, emblemized if not led, by Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda is an evolved descendant. In other words, it would not at all shock me to learn that on the shelves of his cave in Waziristan or wherever else he might be that Osama bin Laden has a well thumbed copy of Sun Tzu’s Art of War.

Iran to Release Sailors, Marines

2007-04-04T19:11:00.000+02:00

LONDON: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran said Wednesday that he would immediately release 15 British sailors and marines who have been held captive in Iran since March 23.

Diplomacy is best defined as the art of building a ladder for the other guy to climb down. I was not hopeful that it would turn out thus so I really must tip my hat to British diplomacy here. Great ladder building

.Ahmadinejad said at a news conference in Tehran that he was giving the British military personnel amnesty and a pardon.

"I announce their freedom and their return to their people," he said. "They will be free after our meeting. They will go to the airport and will join their families."

The Iranian president said the decision to release the prisoners was not part of a swap with Iranian prisoners in Iraq.

"Our government has pardoned them, it is a gift from our people" he said.

A gift! Thanks Captain Blackbeard Let's get these guys back on HMS Cornwall as soon as possible doing their jobs which I rather hope will involve a rather more proactive approach to Iran in the very near future.

Great speech at the UN

2007-03-28T11:07:00.000+02:00

UN Watch Executive Director Hillel Neuel speaks inconvenient truth to the UN Human Rights Council. The response of the Council's president is all too predictable.

Pathetic.

Electronic Jihad Part 3: Great Information Operation

2007-03-19T21:41:00.000+02:00

This video was just sent to me by a friend. It is extraordinary how sophisticated AQ's propaganda is. Do we do Information Operations this well? This is very professional work

The Fall of Modernity

2007-03-15T20:33:00.000+02:00

I have been discussing two things in class lately: the nature of the 'Long War'; and how progress in it can be assessed. On top of that I have been preoccupied with the topic of 'strategic narratives' as I'm writing an article on how social media is used to generate and sustain compelling strategic narratives which I would argue constitute the real centres of gravity in this conflict. Probably this makes me unduly susceptible to this article by Michal Vlahos in the latest American Conservative, 'The Fall of Modernity'. There's a lot of food for thought in it. (And, incidentally, observe the footnotes--that's how it should be done). But what caught my attention particularly was this:

So we are, as our own government tells us, in a war of civilizations—a national testing in which we will emerge triumphant, the true beacon and best hope of humankind or else find ourselves destroyed, the detritus of history. This is not simply inflated rhetoric. It is avowed American policy.
In the president’s own words, it is nothing less than “the unfolding of a global ideological struggle, our time in history,” pitting “progress” and “freedom” against a “mortal danger to all humanity,” the “enemy of civilization.” Moreover, “the call of history has come to the right country,” and “the defense of freedom is worth the sacrifice.” Ultimately the “evil ones” will be destroyed, and “this great country will lead the world to safety, security, and peace,” a millennial world where “free peoples will own the future.”2

Here inevitably, rather than reflecting actual conditions, it is more important for reality to fit the sacred narrative. So for nearly four years, it has been “the Iraqi people” vs. “the killers,” or more broadly in the world of Islam, “good moderate Muslims” vs. “evil.”

Does it matter whether we pursue grand drama for wholly narcissistic reasons, as long as we win? What if we don’t? Failure might lead to the collapse of friendly tyrannies like Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia or even to economic crisis and an expansion of the war. Longstanding alliances could come apart. But even then our military power, our vast economy, and the strength of the American people would still be intact. Strategic recovery should still be possible. The old narrative might be in tatters, but that might turn out to be a good thing because we could then build a more modest national story.

Such recovery is foreclosed, however, in a script of civilization and its enemies. Not only did American leaders go for the existential War of History instead of dealing with reality, they chose the worst possible dramatic vehicle for restaging the national passion play. For what we are experiencing is no war of civilizations. It is not even a war.

Because the national narrative is a sacred retelling of God’s message and His American mission, its periodic restaging always assumes the form of a great war—revolution, civil war, world war. But after 9/11, there was no great war to be had, so we created a simulacrum. Up to a point, we might keep it looking like a war. But at last it will not perform for us. It cannot support the demands of the drama we require. What we needed was a grand yet simple story with easy enemies and a ringing ending called victory. But our drama has shape-shifted from a war into an uncontrollable force accelerating larger world transformations.

The “war” is revealing the distant contours of the end of modernity.

Read the whole thing, as they say.

She's got my vote!

2007-03-15T19:52:00.000+02:00

Well, if I had a vote that is. From the New York Times, 'If Elected ...Clinton Says Some G.I.’s in Iraq Would Remain':

WASHINGTON, March 14 — Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton foresees a “remaining military as well as political mission” in Iraq, and says that if elected president, she would keep a reduced military force there to fight Al Qaeda, deter Iranian aggression, protect the Kurds and possibly support the Iraqi military.

This is almost exactly my view with the caveat that I would aim by fair means and foul to actively destabilize, subvert, and undermine Iran rather than merely to 'deter it' (the deterrability of Iran being open to question, I think). It perfectly encapsulates the least-bad-response to what seems to me the case that:

The counterinsurgency campaign in Iraq is probably beyond recovery; but,
the consequences of packing it in leaving Iraq a failed state maelstrom which sucks in the rest of the region (even more than it does already) are too high a price to pay.

Electronoic Jihad Part 2

2007-03-11T22:28:00.000+02:00

According to this Times On-Line article 'Al Qaeda plot to bring down UK internet'. In my earlier post on this I speculated that AQ's cyberwar innovation looked to be combining physical coercion with cyberattacks. This is a slightly different, but rather more ambitious, variant: physical attacks designed to take down information systems. Clearly, somebody's been reading up on Effects-Based Operations.

Hitchens on Ayaan Hirsi Ali

2007-03-06T13:49:00.000+02:00

I am currently reading (devouring rather) Ayaan Hirsi Ali's book Infidel. I highly recommend it. Which is why I found rather underwhelming Timothy Garton Ash's not terribly favourable review of it in the New York Review of Books. Christopher Hitchens takes on the critics much more eloquently than I can in this Slate piece 'Ayaan Hirsi Ali is no Fundamentalist.' Have a read.

Update: Good article here at the Wall Street Journal covering the 'Secular Islam Summit' in Florida, 'Islam's Other Radicals'. The author mentions Irshad Manji, the Canadian-Lesbian-Muslim-Feminist (how's that for identity politics?) whose book The Trouble with Islam is also good reading.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- At this landmark Summit on Secular Islam, there are no "moderate" Muslims.

There are ex-Muslims: People like Ibn Warraq, author of "Why I Am Not a Muslim," who doesn't want an Islamic Reformation so much as he does a Muslim Enlightenment. There are ex-jihadists: people like Tawfik Hamid, who, as a young medical student in Cairo, briefly enlisted in the Gamaa Islamiya terrorist group and who remembers being preached to by a mesmerizing doctor named Ayman al-Zawahiri.

There are Muslim runaways: People like Afshin Ellian, who in 1983 fled Iran -- and the threat of execution -- on camelback and is now a professor of law at the University of Leiden in Holland. (Now threatened by European jihadists, he lives with round-the-clock police protection.) There are experts on Islamic law: People like Hasan Mahmoud, a native Bangladeshi who, as director of Shariah at the Muslim Canadian Congress, was instrumental in overturning Ontario's once-legal Shariah court last year.
There are even a few practicing Muslims here, such as Canadian author Irshad Manji. Ms. Manji, whose documentary "Faith Without Fear" airs on PBS next month, describes herself as a "radical traditionalist" and draws a sharp distinction between Muslim moderates and reformers: "Moderate Muslims denounce terror that's committed in the name of Islam but they deny that religion has anything to do with it," she says. "Reform-minded Muslims denounce terror that's committed in the name of Islam and acknowledge that our religion is used to inspire it."

The difference is not trivial. For more than five years, the Bush administration has been attempting to enlist the support of the so-called moderates in the war on terror -- its definition of "moderate" being remarkably elastic, to put it charitably. To take one example, administration emissary Karen Hughes has "reached out" to such figures as Sheikh Mohammed Sayed Tantawi, head of al-Azhar theological university in Cairo, with whom she had a "wonderful meeting" in September 2005.

Sheikh Tantawi, adept at talking out of both sides of his mouth, had earlier approved a fatwa calling on the Iraqi people to "defend itself, its land, and its homeland [against the U.S. invasion] with all means of defense at its disposal, because it is a jihad that is permitted by Islamic law. . . . The gates of jihad are open until the Day of Judgment, and he who denies this is an infidel or one who abandons his religion."

Undersecretary Hughes is not at this summit, of course, nor is anyone else from the State Department, nor is the U.S.-funded al-Hurra Arabic TV station -- facts archly noted by the conferees. In the quasi-official U.S. view, the speakers at this conference amount to an exotic, publicity-seeking fringe group, with whom close association is politically unwise.

Al-Jazeera, however, is here, suggesting that the real Arab mainstream better appreciates the broad interest the conference's speakers attract in the Muslim world, as well as their latent power. Perhaps this is the flip side of the appeal of extremist Islam, an indication that what Muslims are mainly looking for are radical alternatives to the unpalatable mush of unpopular autocratic governments, state-approved clerics like Sheikh Tantawi, and Saudi-funded "mainstream" organizations such as the Council on American-Islamic Relations.

Radicalism, at least of a kind, is certainly what this summit provides via Wafa Sultan. Dr. Sultan, a Syrian-born psychiatrist now living in the U.S., came to widespread public attention last year after she debated a Sunni cleric on al-Jazeera. "Only Muslims defend their beliefs by burning down churches," she observed. The televised clip, translated by Memri, has been downloaded on YouTube more than a million times.

Dr. Sultan, whose outspokenness has forced her and her family into hiding, is here to receive an award from the Center for Inquiry, the summit's organizer and lead funder. She accepts it by saying: "I don't believe there is any difference between radical Islam and regular Islam."

The view is shared by some, though by no means all, of the conferees. "Salafists cannot imagine Islam without the killing of apostates," says Dr. Hamid, who also now lives in hiding. "To them, the religion is a house of cards: Remove one element, and the whole structure collapses." Another conferee subscribes to the Salafist logic, though he dissents from the religion as a whole. "Truth is," he admits, "to be a Muslim democrat you have to be a bad Muslim."

In this view, the baggage of Shariah and hadith -- the traditions in which some of the most violent Islamic injunctions are to be found -- are as central to Islam as the Quran itself. Hasan Mahmoud disagrees. "Most Muslims don't even know what the Shariah laws are," he says. "The moment you actually show them what the laws are, they can understand they're unjust." Mr. Mahmoud illustrates the point by observing that, under Shariah, a husband does not require a witness to divorce his wife. "But the Quran says that if you want to divorce your wife, you need two witnesses. With Muslims, this kind of thing works magic."

Mr. Mahmoud spreads his gospel partly by way of cheaply produced DVDs, which seems pretty crude until one recalls that Ayatollah Khomeini, during his exile in Paris, spread the gospel of Islamic revolution by way of audiocassettes. Other conferees also have their Web sites: Alamgir Hussain, from Singapore, has islam-watch.org; Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi, the conference's moving spirit, puts out IranPressNews.com; other conferees write for MiddleEastTransparent.com and so on. These are the "frugal chariots," to borrow a phrase from Emily Dickinson, that bear the Muslim reformer's soul.

A fair bit of U.S. government money is being spent on conference security, including from the FBI. Still, it's remarkable that the government, given the huge resources available from places like the National Endowment for Democracy, provides no funding or support for this conference or its various participants.

Here are two questions for the government: If Mr. Warraq, Dr. Sultan et al. are really irrelevant to the larger Muslim debate, why are the jihadists so eager to kill them? And if the jihadists want to kill them, don't they deserve support as well as security?

Think Beyond War

2007-03-05T21:09:00.000+02:00

'Don't send a lion to catch a mouse' Says Shankar Vedantam in The Washington Post in summarizing the thrust of a recent study by Col Isaiah Wilson III of West Point and Jason Lyall of Princeton University of some 250 conflicts since the Napoleonic era:

Two political scientists recently examined 250 asymmetrical conflicts, starting with the Peninsular War.

Although great powers are vastly more powerful today than in the 19th century, the analysis showed they have become far less likely to win asymmetrical wars. More surprising, the analysis showed that the odds of a powerful nation winning an asymmetrical war decrease as that nation becomes more powerful.
The analysis by Jason Lyall at Princeton University and Lt. Col. Isaiah Wilson III at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point shows that the likelihood of a great power winning an asymmetrical war went from 85 percent during 1800-1850 to 21 percent during 1950-2003.
The same trend was evident when the researchers studied only asymmetrical conflicts involving the United States. The more industrialized a powerful country becomes, the more its military becomes technologically powerful, the less effective it seems to be in an asymmetrical war.
Essentially, what Lyall and Wilson are saying is that if you want to catch a mouse, you need a cat. If you hire a lion to do the job because it is bigger and stronger, the very strength and size of the lion can get in the way of getting the job done.
"A lion is built for different prey," Lyall said. "A lion is built to take down an antelope, and a cat is designed to take down a mouse. Now [in Iraq] we are a lion trying to take down a mouse.

We were lucky enough to have Colonel Wilson visit the Department of War Studies at King's College London last week to make his case, and am impressive case it was. Wilson cuts an impressive figure intellectually--and tellingly he more than held his own in the debate which followed in the pub afterward (the true test of a scholar, IMHO). I suspect and hope that we will hear very much more from him. Have a look at his website Think Beyond War which I recommend highly.

I very much buy his argument so far as I have seen it thus far. And I'd like to see more. What's the future for the 'lion'? Is it all mouse-catching from here on? If so the lion better give birth to some kittens asap. How to make that happen is something that interests me greatly.

Update: Reading it over that last sentence seems an invitation to a bunch of bad jokes. Fire away in comments.

Warning: Graphic!

2007-03-02T18:10:00.000+02:00

Have you ever wondered what flies look like close up after they've hit your windscreen? Wonder no more.

Guardian report on Iraq

2007-03-02T13:01:00.001+02:00

The Guardian yesterday posted a gloomy assessment of the situation in Iraq, 'Military chiefs give US six months to win Iraq war', based on an unnamed sources insight into the allegedly pessimistic views of the 'Baghdad Brains' Trust', Cols Kilcullen (ret), McMaster and Mansoor, brought in by Gen Petraeus to advise him on a new counterinsurgency strategy. This morning I see that Kilcullen has strongly refuted the article in the Small Wars Journal 'Guardian article misrepresents the advisers' view'. Extract:

And yes, there is a risk that home-front political will might collapse just as we are getting things right on the ground. Given some commentators’ overall negativity, one suspects that their efforts may be directed to precisely that end. You may not like the President, you may be unhappy about the war. But whose side are you on? The Iraqis trusted us, and this is their fight. They deserve our support.

Buried in the article, though, are some references to real-world progress:

• Progress has been made on oil-wealth sharing legislation – a major development
• Joint operations are beginning in Baghdad, and are going well so far

• Iraqi community leaders are reporting somewhat improved morale and public confidence among the civilian population, though this is tempered by previously unmet expectations

• Numbers of political murders have fallen (precipitously) since the operation began, though these are still too high in absolute terms

• Iraqi forces are turning up, and performing well, though not always at 100% strength

• In al-Anbar, tribal leaders have realized extremists have nothing to offer them – a huge development, as influential community leaders have "flipped" from AQ's side to support the Iraqi government

• Regional diplomatic efforts, including with Iran and Syria, are apparently underway

Unfortunately most of these developments are buried in the last paragraph of a long article.
The Guardian is entitled to its own view of the war, and reasonable people can differ on these issues. But the Guardian’s view is not ours, and the anonymous source misrepresents our views. It is really too soon to tell how things will play out, though early signs are encouraging so far, and the advisers as a group remain cautious realists, not pessimists.

Actually I'd describe my own view on Iraq as cautiously pessimistic, my gut feeling is that the counterinsurgency is lost and we need to be think now about how to limit the fallout from that; but as ever I think Kilcullen is worth listening to. I am impressed moreover with the speed with which he got this rebuttal out because he hits the nail on the head when he says 'there is a risk that home-front political will might collapse...' Indeed I think that it has already here in Britain in no small part because of the relentless chipping away of the Guardian, and the BBC for that matter.

Peace beats War in the 'Tolstoy Cup'

2007-03-02T12:11:00.000+02:00

I missed the game which was evidently a nail-biter.

Electronic Jihad

2007-03-01T12:19:00.001+02:00

There's a good article in the Jerusalem Post on 'Cyberspace as a Combat Zone'. I have been following the literature on 'hacker war' with a skeptical interest for a while now--visit the excellent Information Warfare Site for all your IW needs. My belief is that the 'Electronic Pearl Harbor' (ie., catastrophic electronic-only attack on critical systems) threat is something of a cliche, more hype than threat. But what has been growing increasingly clear is that Al Qaeda makes excellent use of the Internet as a tool for, inter alia, mobilization, fund-raising, propagandizing, planning, training and communication. Indeed, I'd say that when it comes to the information war AQ is running rings around us. It inclines me somewhat to agree with Bruce Berkowitz who wrote

History will not portray Osama bin Laden as a mere terrorist. Rather instructors at West Point and Annapolis will cite him as one of the first military commanders to use a new kind of combat organization in a successful operation.[1]

Well, maybe that goes too far. I doubt Osama is blogging and YouTubing from his cave personally. Still it is the case that his followers and fellow travellers have grasped the impact of the Digital Revolution in a way which contrasts with ironic sharpness with their medieval thinking in every other respect. An interesting part of the Jerusalem post piece is this:

Reports posted by the mujahideen after attacks on Web sites indicate that these cyberassaults affect the Web sites only temporarily, if at all. In many cases the mujahideen themselves admit that their attack was ineffective and that the Web site returned to normal functioning only minutes or hours after the attack. In light of this, the mujhahideen often resort to another method in an attempt to completely eliminate the targeted site.

An Islamist hacker explained the method as follows: "We contact... the server [which hosts the target website] before and after the assault, and threaten [the server admin] until they shut down the target website. [In such cases], the 'host' [i.e., server] is usually forced to shut down the website. The battle continues until the enemy declares: 'I surrender.'"

Pure cyber attacks with no 'kinetic' element (to use the lingo) are not very effective, but cyber attacks combined with threats of violence and intimidation (good old-fashioned thuggery, in other words) work a trick. Perhaps there's a parallel here with the hoary old debate over air power's claim to strategic decisiveness independent of other arms?

[1] Bruce Berkowitz, The New Face of War: How War will be Fought in the 21^st Century, New York, NY: The Free Press, 2003, p. 17.

Should armchair critics just cut it out?

2007-02-27T20:30:00.000+02:00

I always start my on-line day day with a visit to this website run by the Canadian Forces College Spotlight on Military News and International Affairs. I highly recommend it because it is updated everyday and searchably archived. I also like the simple categorization (Canadian News/Canadian Commentary and International News/International Commentary). Being ethnically Canadian I am occasionally interested in sampling the Canadian debate. This article on Canada.com 'Armchair critics must halt drumbeat of defeatism over Afghan mission' caught my eye. As a self-confessed Armchair General I'm sensitive to the thrust of what he's saying here:

It's a golden rule of military operations that, unless you know what it is you are trying to do, you will fail -- at best suffering humiliation -- at worst needlessly losing lives.
There is another impediment to success, just as malignant. It's when you have a chorus of armchair observers shouting unsolicited advice, amplified by a gullible media.

At the risk of coming over all postmodern I think there is a tendency of the West to create a reality of defeat out of nothing but our tendency to jabber on in the endless societal echo chamber of which the Internet (case in point this blog) is a megaphonic amplifier. I sympathize with the urge of the author to scream 'shut up!' I paraphrase, actually what he says is:

Dithering politicians -- and blinkered academics -- are blurring the focus of the mission in Afghanistan.
In doing so, they risk weakening a military alliance that is a bulwark against terror for millions living in western democracies.

But my sympathy only goes so far. Frankly, I am apprehensive about the mission in Afghanistan as I wrote here. It seems to me that Afghanistan tends to be seen as 'the war that can be won' which is true but it could equally truly be called the 'war that can also be lost' if we repeat the mistakes of post March-April 2003 Iraq which it seems to me in some respects is happening:

There are not enough troops on the ground and the ones that are there in the tough areas are so busy nailing insurgents while staying alive themselves that the goal of securing the population's support risks being compromised.

The central government is weak and sectarian divisions (admittedly not of the Manichean proportions of the Sunni-Shiite divide in Iraq) pervade the country.

Ungoverned regions of Pakistan (possibly with the compliance and/or tacit support of parts of the Pakistani security services) act as a staging point and logistical base for attacks inside Afghanistan.

Suicide bombings are on the rise and the conflict is internationalizing with the arrival of enthusiastic Jihadis from all parts of the Islamic world eager to join the fight.

In short, defeat is a plausible outcome here. So with all respect to the author what I want to say is not 'Shut up!' but 'Wake up!' which is a very different thing. The problem is as Edward Luttwak once wrote that 'The West has become comfortably habituated to defeat.' (On the Meaning of Victory, Simon and Schuster, 1986, p. 289) This is civilizationally insanely suicidal. So, sure, let's cut the defeatism and start a real dialogue on how we can win--and for what it's worth I think his idea that what's needed is more firepower and more armour is the sort of short-termist band-aid-ism that leads to strategic failure. There's a debate to be had here to which even Armchair Generals like me can contribute. I fear, however, that the situation is even worse than the author acknowledges: the first step, and it's a big one, is shaking people out of their comfortable habituation with the idea that losing doesn't matter.

Update: Two good articles on Afghanistan from the On Point blog here

Prince Harry Going to Iraq

2007-02-23T19:32:00.000+02:00

Very busy week, hence snail-like blogging rate. The report that Prince Harry will be deploying with the Blues and Royals to Iraq caught my eye, however. I can see many problems with this, particularly that Harry being the terrorist dream target puts others in graver danger than they would otherwise be by his mere presence. I think the argument against is well expressed here:

Harry's desire to serve is admirable. But if a single additional squaddie is harmed protecting him, his will be a deployment too far.

On balance, however, I'm for it. He's a soldier doing his job, his duty. It'd be worse if the 2nd in line were offered a free pass on combat deployment (as he obviously was) and took it. I think it speaks well of him and I hope his special attractiveness as a target gives his mates lots of opportunities to plink those who out of eagerness for a big kill attack unwisely.

Kernel of truth

2007-02-15T14:43:00.000+02:00

Off topic, the BBC reports that at last night's Brit awards Oasis frontman Noel Gallagher laid into Tony Blair's record. Ho hum, blah, blah, blah... heard it all before. The late great sage Will Rogers once said 'there is nothing so stupid as the educated man if you get him off the thing he was educated in.' That goes double for pop idols and movie stars who unfortunately are constantly having microphones thrust at them and invited to extemporize on the weighty matters of the day. With very few exceptions the results are cringe-making. This bit caught my eye though:

David Cameron is no different from Tony Blair, and Gordon Brown is no different from David Cameron.
They're all cut from the cloth and it annoys me that the biggest political icon from the last 30 years has been Margaret Thatcher, someone who tried to destroy the working class... it freaks me out you know.
So I don't really think there's anything left to vote for. That's why people don't vote... why people would rather vote for celebrity talent shows than would vote for politics.

I beg to differ on Maggie, but otherwise I reckon he 's right . The terms of debate have narrowed so in this country that there doesn't seem much of a choice to be made.

Afghanistan: Losing Friends and Making Enemies?

2007-02-15T14:01:00.000+02:00

The Senlis Council released a lengthy report yesterday on Afghanistan, 'Losing Friends and Making Enemies', based on 500+ interviews with average locals. I've only managed to scan the bulk of it this morning but the main thrust of it is sobering. As it says in the conclusion:

The International Community needs a reality check: we must fundamentally reassess the status of international community counter-insurgency efforts in Afghanistan The international community has failed to convince the local population that it is there to help and has failed to increase support for the Afghan government.

This has reinforced a situation in which the local Afghan population sees itself as being alone, faced on the one hand, by the international community and the government, and on the other hand by the Taliban and other insurgent groups.

The support that the international community enjoyed when it first arrived in the country has disappeared and must be rebuilt in order to provide a positive environment for the military to fight in and to build support for the Karzai Government in Southern Afghanistan.

We must acknowledge this reality and take immediate steps to turn around the dynamics between the international community and the local Afghan population. Despite the fact that counter-insurgency theory is normally understood to include many different policy areas, the counter-insurgency strategy used in Afghanistan is dominated by a military approach. The other elements of classic counter-insurgency responses such as humanitarian aid, development cooperation and infrastructure/institution building have been sorely neglected, under-funded and under-prioritized during the five years of international presence in Afghanistan.

This means that despite the significant military success in the south we are not able to establish government control in the south, nor can we establish meaningful security systems.

You can see the Canadian press on the report here which takes the line 'we're waging a losing war' and the British on the BBC here which takes a more equivocal view. My gut feeling is that the report slightly exaggerates the difficulty of the situation. I hear what David Kilcullen, Chief Strategist in the Office of the Coordinator for Counter-Terrorism at the US State Department, quoted in the BBC report, is saying 'The fundamentals, the bones of the situation, in Afghanistan are quite sound...Challenges remain and will have to be tackled but the prospect for success remains good.' But I can't help thinking AQ's chief strategist could well be saying exactly the same thing. There's really no room for complacency.

Putin's speech at Munich conference

2007-02-14T12:01:00.000+02:00

I meant to blog about this earlier. Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin made a speech at a security conference in Europe which NATO head Jaap de Hoop Scheffer described, in the most diplomatic words possible, as 'disappointing and unhelpful'. According to a BBC report Putin claimed,

The United States has overstepped its borders in all spheres - economic, political and humanitarian, and has imposed itself on other states," he said.
It was a formula that, he said, had led to disaster: "Local and regional wars did not get fewer, the number of people who died did not get less but increased. We see no kind of restraint - a hyper-inflated use of force.

Not surpisingly, the talk afterward has been of the 'new Cold War'. Ariel Cohen writes about 'Confronting Putin's Push' noting the Russian plan to spend $189 billion over the next five years on arms which sounds like a lot but should be taken with a large grain of salt. There've been half a dozen major reform and rearmament plans for the Russian Army since the collapse of its mighty predecessor none of which have amounted to much. The Guardian reports today that Russian conscripts have been forced to work as prostitutes which, if true, marks a low which surprises even me (I spent 1996 to 2001 researching and writing about the decrepitude of the Russian military in some detail).

So let's keep things in perspective here. Russia's important. But if the Soviet Union was accurately characterized as 'Upper Volta with nuclear weapons' , then Russia today is the smaller, poorer, more decrepit neighbour of Upper Volta--with nuclear weapons. Max Boot has it right when he writes 'Putin: the louse that roared'. Putin is a man who has famously played his cards as well as could be done. He's clever and he has his hand on Western Europe's gas valve which gives him some stick. But he's overplayed his hand here.

Update: Excellent article by Andrei Piontkovsky.

The attitude of the Russian political class to Europe, and to the West in general, over the latest three to four centuries has always been contradictory, hypersensitive, and extremely emotional. The best Russian political text on the subject remains, even today, Alexander Blok's 1918 poem, The Scythians, with its famous lines about Russia and its attitude toward Europe: "She stares, she stares at you with hatred and with love," and "We will turn our Asiatic snout toward you." Just as 300 years ago, and 200, and 20, Russians know perfectly well that we cannot do without Western technology and investments, and that autarky and an Iron Curtain spell economic and geopolitical disaster for Russia. We understand that Russian culture is an integral part of European culture.

And yet, the West seems to irritate us by the very fact of its existence. We see it as a psychological, informational, spiritual challenge. We are constantly trying to convince ourselves that the West is inherently hostile and malevolent toward Russia, because this flatters our vanity and helps to excuse our shortcomings and failures.

If you take any mainstream Russian publication and read the last 100 articles dealing with foreign policy matters, 98 will be full of bitterness, complaints, irritation, poison and hostility toward the West. This despite the fact that most of the authors of those articles like to spend as much time as possible in Western capitals and Western resorts, keep their money in Western banks, and send their children to study in Western schools and universities.

As in Blok's famous poem, a passionate declaration of love for Europe turns, at the slightest doubt as to whether it is reciprocated, into a threatening "And if you won't, there's nothing we can lose, and we can answer you with treachery!"

This is positive

2007-02-14T11:09:00.000+02:00

According to reports this morning Moqtada al Sadr has left Baghdad for Iran. Not great for al Sadr's credibility--though there's nothing saying the departure is permanent. I don't imagine the Iranians are too pleased, however. For the last week the US has been trying to pin on Iran support of arms and men for the Iraqi insurgency--a charge which Iran has vigorouosly denied. But it's a little hard to maintain that suspension of disbelief when one of the top insurgent leaders pitches his tetnt in Tehran and announces he will henceforth general his army by phone from there, as well as in light of other evidence, for example the capture of .50 calibre sniping rifles sold to Iran a year ago in Iraq. On a related note, the BBC says this morning that 11 Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been killed in southern Iran by a roadside bomb. According to the report,

Iranian officials have accused Britain and the United States of supporting ethnic minority rebels operating in the Islamic republic's sensitive border areas.

If this charge is true, good; if it is not true, why aren't they?

So good I have to share

2007-02-13T20:41:00.000+02:00

A witty student added this aside to an ongoing discussion on air power in our 'Strategic Dimensions... 'course. I think all will get a kick out of it:

Off topic but while we're on the subject of knocking the RAF I can't resist pointing in the direction of this article in last week's Sunday Times for an example of just how 'in touch' some members of the junior service really are:
utterly, utterly..
Are they trying to make themselves look bad or what? Is this some kind of reverse psychology recruiting method that I haven’t heard of?

As I read this the mental image I was forming of fthe author was this. Be sure to watch the video.

No one ever has enough books so go buy this one

2007-02-09T21:09:00.000+02:00

As most readers of this blog (there are a few!) will know I teach mainly on the on-line MA War in the Modern World programme of the Department of War Studies at King's College London. We are lucky to have as one of our students on this programme Dan Ford. Why it has taken me so long to put together the name with the author of the book Incident at Muc Wa which was later made into the classic Vietnam War film Go Tell the Spartans I cannot comprehend. The penny dropped when asked, as one is sometimes, 'what's your favourite war film?' and I was compelled to consult wikipedia (as one does) in drawing up my short-list (again). So I looked around and found this site www.danfordbooks (couldn't be any clearer URL) where I purchased my own copy of Incident. I heartily recommend that you all do the same.

Dan, could I have mine autographed please?

A ray of light

2007-02-09T20:28:00.000+02:00

In one of the courses I'm teaching this term we just concluded a unit on the Arab-Israeli conflict. It was a lively discussion--as it almost always is with this group of students--full of quite sharp divisions on some points, which is natural enough given the subject. As I wrote there,

... I feel myself rather bleak about the situation. Assuming events in Iraq and Iran do not precipitate a wider conflagration which will subsume the Arab-Palestinian conflict--at the moment this seems to me the most likely eventuality--then Israel will complete its security wall which will work for the most part in keeping suicide bombers out. Palestinians will have a sort of state which will have none of the attributes of political stability or economic viability and all of the ingredients needed for a descent into its own miniature miasma of inter-communal violence, lawlessness and misery.

In other words I really don't see much chance for a peaceful settlement as such. My guess is that sooner not later there will be peace of a sort because the belligerents will be physically separated as the Israelis withdraw unilaterally subsequent to which, actually, as we are seeing in Gaza now, in parallel with, the nascent Palestinian state will violently and irrevocably collapse. But reading this article, 'A plea for peace from a bereaved parent', written by a Palestinian father mourning his ten-year old daughter, dead with a rubber bullet in her brain, causes a small ray of light to penetrate my dark pessimism. 'From small acorns mighty oaks grow.' May it be so.

Charge of the Professors

2007-02-05T18:38:00.000+02:00

A PhD student in the department gave me a copy of this article this morning 'Officers with PhDs Advising War Effort.' Have a read.

Gen. David H. Petraeus, the new U.S. commander in Iraq, is assembling a small band of warrior-intellectuals -- including a quirky Australian anthropologist, a Princeton economist who is the son of a former U.S. attorney general and a military expert on the Vietnam War sharply critical of its top commanders -- in an eleventh-hour effort to reverse the downward trend in the Iraq war.

Army officers tend to refer to the group as "Petraeus guys." They are smart colonels who have been noticed by Petraeus, and who make up one of the most selective clubs in the world: military officers with doctorates from top-flight universities and combat experience in Iraq.

Essentially, the Army is turning the war over to its dissidents, who have criticized the way the service has operated there the past three years, and is letting them try to wage the war their way.

"Their role is crucial if we are to reverse the effects of four years of conventional mind-set fighting an unconventional war," said a Special Forces colonel who knows some of the officers.

I have been lucky enough to get to know two of these 'Petraeus guys', Kilcullen and McMaster, a very little bit--which is more than enough to be deeply impressed by their clarity and insight about the situation we find ourselves in in Iraq and dedication and determination to find a solution. I am reminded of Napoleon's maxims:

Maxim 6--A retreat, however skillful the manoeuvres, will always produce an injurious moral effect on the army, since by losing the chances of success yourself you throw them into the hands of the enemy.

Maxim 15--in giving battle a general should regard it as his first duty to maintain the honour and glory of his arms. To spare his troops should be but a secondary consideration. But the same determination and perseverance which promote the former object are the best means of securing the latter. In a retreat you lose, in addition to the honour of your arms, more men than in two battles. For this reason you should never despair while there remain brave men around the colours...

I've no doubt of the seriousness of the consequences of defeat in Iraq and I'm apprehensive of the psychological momentum which will be lost to us (and gained by the other side in equal measure, as Napoleon points out). It has been argued by many that we should get out of Iraq so that we can avert defeat in Afghanistan by devoting more resources there. It seems just as likely to me, however, that having won in Iraq the resources of the global insurgency will shift to Afghanistan with far greater alacrity and enthusiasm than we will. In other words, I really, really want the 'surge' to work and if anyone can find a plausible solution it is these 'Petraeus guys'.

Unfortunately, the chances of success in Iraq are pretty remote. So this part of the article concerns me 'Essentially, the Army is turning the war over to its dissidents, who have criticized the way the service has operated there the past three years, and is letting them try to wage the war their way.' Iraq is a hot potato and when the music stops who will be left holding it? Probably not the guys who bollocksed it up in the first place, but the critical people who might have done it right given the chance. The Charge of the Professors looks a little like the Charge of the [too little, too late] Light Brigade. Ever heard the old adage 'Success has a hundred fathers but failure is an orphan'? If I were Petraeus that's what would be at the back of my mind right now.

A new low

2007-01-31T19:50:00.000+02:00

Nine Britons have been arrested in connection with an alleged plot to kidnap and behead a British soldier who had served in Afghanistan live on the internet, West Midlands Police said this afternoon. As someone who studies contemporary security issues for a living I am not surprised at this development. As Herfried Munkler wrote in his book New Wars,

War ‘smoulders on’, ‘spreads out’, ‘extends over’ and so on… War as the subject of events will not stop at the frontiers of Europe and North America but will sooner or later move beyond them.[1]

In other words, if it works elsewhere sooner or later it'll be tried here. Still, I'm shocked by this appalling thing. And angry, which of course is the point... It's getting increasingly harder to keep one's head, literally and metaphorically.

UPDATE: 'MI5, police and SAS practise for a 'Beslan' siege'

[1] Herfried Munkler, The New Wars (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2005), pp. 31-34.

Iraq Plan B

2007-01-30T19:47:00.000+02:00

Here's a good article by Senator Richard Lugar on Plan B for Iraq 'Beyond Baghdad'. I think it's worth listening to Lugar on security matters. The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program which he created with Democratic Senator Sam Nunn was just about the smartest security initiative undertaken by any country after the Cold War. I think he is right in characterizing the 'surge' in Iraq this way:

We need to recast the geo-strategic reference points of our Iraq policy. Some commentators have compared the Bush plan to a "Hail Mary" pass in football -- a desperate heave deep down the field by a losing team at the end of the game. Actually, a far better analogy for the Bush plan is a draw play on third down with 20 yards to go in the first quarter. The play does have a chance of working if everything goes perfectly, but it is more likely to gain a few yards and set up a punt on the next down, after which the game can be continued under more favorable circumstances.

Translation: it probably won't work but it may leave us set up for a better game afterward. Clearly this is a positive spin. I have great respect for the sentiments expressed by the troops in the report below. But my gut feeling is that the counterinsurgency in Iraq is irrecoverable with the 'surge' which is in reality more like a dribble--too little, too late. So, what to do after? Lugar's assessment is similar to my own:

...we need to plan for a potent redeployment of U.S. forces in the region to defend oil assets, target terrorist enclaves, deter adventurism by Iran and provide a buffer against regional sectarian conflict. In the best case, we could supplement bases in the Middle East with troops stationed outside urban areas in Iraq. Such a redeployment would allow us to continue training Iraqi troops and delivering economic assistance, but it would not require us to interpose ourselves between Iraqi sectarian factions.

Where I tend to part company with Lugar is with the idea of continuing training of troops and economic assistance. When we stop interposing ourselves between Iraqi sectarian factions the country will descend (deeper) into civil war. Which raises the question which troops are we going to train? To whom are we going to provide economic assistance? The Shi'ites or the Sunnis? Staying out of that fight is a good idea.

The strong often lose

2007-01-29T22:30:00.000+02:00

Lately I have been trying to working through why raw combat power is such a poor indicator of the likelihood of strategic success nowadays. I've just submitted an article; if it's accepted I'll bang on about it at length. The gist of it is captured by something Sir Michael Howard has argued recently: that warfighting and nation-building are not distinct and different things as we in the West have tended to conceive them. This leads us to strategic defeat because in reality ‘the two blend into one another and the conduct of each determines the success of the other.’ We do the war-fighting part quite well; what we don't do so well is establish the conditions in which the other side is inclined to accept defeat, which is to say the political objectives we have set (indeed there's a good case to be made for both Vietnam and Iraq that we entered the war with no political objective in the first place). So the war smoulders on until we get tired, or bored, and decide to go home. I was interested then to come across this article 'Twisting Arms Isn't as Easy as Dropping Bombs' which discusses the research of political scientist Patricia Sullivan who has looked at all post-World War II conflicts between the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and weaker nations.

What she found is interesting: 'Although the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China were militarily superior to their opponents in every one of the 122 conflicts that Sullivan studied, these powerful countries failed to win an astonishing 39 percent of their wars against weaker opponents... For all the talk of "shock and awe" before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Sullivan's research shows that military power alone is not a useful predictor of victory. Sullivan found that powerful nations tend to win wars when all they seek is an opponent's submission, but tend to lose when victory requires an opponent's cooperation.'

Extraordinary story

2007-01-19T00:10:00.000+02:00

Why this is not the top news story today I cannot fathom. Absolutely astounding. Respect.

Gen Petraeus PhD Thesis

2007-01-15T13:51:00.000+02:00

Further to my previous post about Gen Petraeus and in the tradition of previous posts on interesting-things-you-can-find-by-using-bibliographic-databases-of-the-library here is the PhD dissertation of the general: THE AMERICAN MILITARY AND THE LESSONS OF VIETNAM: A STUDY OF MILITARY INFLUENCE AND THE USE OF FORCE IN THE POST-VIETNAM ERA

It's interesting reading in its own right made all the more interesting for where Petraeus is now. He was certainly ably advised: Richard Ullman, Stephen Walt, Barry Posen, and G. John Ikenberry are noted in the acknowledgments.

British general speaks about Iraq

2007-01-14T11:07:00.000+02:00

Here's an interesting article by Lieutenant General Graeme Lamb CMG DSO OBE, Deputy Commanding General for the Multi-National Force-Iraq . I'm not very optimistic about Iraq. The general is, guardedly :

...from what I have seen, it is my strong conviction that, as bad as the situation may sometimes appear, there is still good reason to be optimistic for Iraq’s future.

I'm skeptical. Food for thought.

Interview with Gen. Petraeus

2006-12-19T14:53:00.000+02:00

Alas my poor neglected blog! During two weeks of simulating the Cuban Missile Crisis I found no time for posting here, or indeed other 'non-essential' tasks such as sleeping. I'm still catching up with what's happened in the real world.

I just came across this fascinating Spiegel interview with Gen David Petraeus, former head of 101st Airborne, now head of the Combined Arms Center at Fort Leavenworth, and one of the American generals who si generally agreed to 'get' counterinsurgency. Petraeus makes two points which I find especially useful.

The first, has to do with the ongoing cultural change in the US Army to viewing counterinsurgency as one of its primary tasks. Petraeus refutes a hoary old adage which has long bothered me that if you fight the high-intensity 'big' wars then you can more easily gear down to fighting low-intensity 'small wars', the latter being an example of what used to be called a 'lesser included contingency' or as dismissively 'operations other than war' in the sense of not being the proper job of a real army.

We used to say, that if you can do the "big stuff," the big combined arms, high-end, high intensity major combat operations and have a disciplined force, then you can do the so-called "little stuff," too. That turned out to be wrong.

Basically, the 'little stuff' is damned difficult too; getting it wrong costs blood and treasure and leaves pure 'warfighting' forces balanced on a knife-edge between tactical success and strategic failure.

The second, is a point that I obviously must agree with. Petraeus argues that counterinsurgency is 'war at the graduate level... thinking man's warfare'. And for that you need, naturally enough, thinking men (and women):

SPIEGEL: You propagate the idea that young officers should go to graduate school. Why does a soldier need a master's degree?

Petraeus: We're talking about how to react to unforeseeable, non-standard tasks, we're talking about environments that are very different to those we're used to. You have to work in a foreign language, you have to negotiate with people who come from another religious background or who don't even share what we would call the same core values. Now here you have a setting quite similar to graduate school, which takes you out of your intellectual comfort zone -- and that really is something a young officer should experience.

You know, we in the Army, we have to admit, that we're living sometimes a sort of a grindstone cloister existence. We work very hard; indeed, we have our noses to the proverbial grindsone. And we tend to live a somewhat cloistered existence much of our lives. So we have to try to raise, as one of my colleagues once put it, our sights beyond the maximum effective range of a M-16-rifle. Graduate school and other experiences that get us out of our intellectual comfort zone help us do just that.

Sounds like an endorsement for MA War in the Modern World to me. I must ring up the general and book an appointment.

Bolton resigns from UN

2006-12-04T20:21:00.000+02:00

In case you haven't seen it, Bush accepts Bolton's U.N. resignation. I have been told by friends working at the UN and by others who've met Bolton that he is, well, kind of a jerk. Actually I recall this was the gist of what was being said by ex-subordinates and co-workers when he was first appointed. But then again I think he's the jerk the UN deserved. I'm much more relieved to see this guy on his way out. And the manner and style of his exit is entirely typical and predictable. A pox on 'em both. Good riddance.

Another PhD is born

2006-12-02T12:24:00.000+02:00

On Friday my PhD student Tai Ming Cheung successfully defended his PhD thesis on the development of the Chinese dual-use defence industrial base. Great title: 'Leaping Tiger, Hybrid Dragon'. Tai Ming is rather brilliant and as a result was absolutely a dawdle to supervise. We'll be hearing a lot more from Tai Ming I think. Events in the Middle East have caused a lot of us to take our eyes off China's rise. That's going to change soon. There are few people better placed to interpret and explain developments in Chinese security than Tai Ming.

Borat Cultural Learnings of America...

2006-11-28T22:41:00.000+02:00

Totally off topic. See the updated post below for serious thoughts on war. I went to see the Borat movie on Sunday evening. It has gotten very good reviews and I was rather looking forward to it. I rather liked the Ali G clips I'd seen on YouTube. Actually I thought they were clever in an idiotic sort of way. I did not like Borat, however. The thing which impressed me foremost was how polite Americans are. The preparedness to endure the crassest offences is pathological. They need help. In any other country it would have been a short movie. He'd have been throttled ten minutes in.

War Amongst the People

2006-11-24T19:14:00.000+02:00

Theo has a great post on Cultures of COIN on his blog. Go read it if you haven't already. Then have a listen to this BBC Radio 4 Analysis programme which aired last night but you can listen to here (scroll down). Lots of good interviews about NATO and the challenge of fighting Wars Amongst the People.

Update: I've been meaning all week to flesh out this post by explaining what it was I thought interesting about this programme. Towards the end Francois Heisbourg, formerly director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, proposes a solution to a fairly fundamental problem. The West produces too few infantry soldiers for high manpower, low-tech, security generation jobs like stabilization. That being the case why not outsource to armies like India or Pakistan? After all if IBM can outsource its back office why can't the military?

I really like bold ideas. And Heisbourg is a serious guy. But this strikes me as a phenomenally bad idea on so many levels, above all that this not the equivalent of the back office it's the store front, the main business. I haven't heard it proposed in quite this way before; I hope that the fact it's coming from as respected a figure as Heisbourg is not an indication of how seriously it is being taken.

Mind mapping

2006-11-24T16:57:00.000+02:00

I've been chatting with students about essay outlines recently. I always stress the same things:

1. start your research early
2. do not wait to begin writing until after you have finished researching; the two things should proceed in parallel
3. begin by interrogating the question: What is it getting at? What are its assumptions or embedded concepts?
4. answer the question as completely as you can in not more than two sentences. That's your thesis statement.
5. work to an outline

(Related earlier posts on the subject of essay writing and marking)

But many people find writing outlines difficult. Normally this is because they fail to resolve on a thesis before embarking on one which means as a result that the outline ends up more as a list of points related somehow to the question but not organized in a way which actually points to an answer. Personally, I tend to use a fairly linear list approach with my own outlines. However, non-linear mindmaps are frequently said to be a better way, although it takes some getting used to. On this site about mindmaps you'll find an on-line mind-mapping tool which looks potentially useful--though I wonder if doing it this way defeats the purpose of non-linear thinking, paper and pencil seems more appropriate. And there's also a tool for reordering lists if you prefer to go old school which looks very handy.

Pull out now!

2006-11-22T19:47:00.000+02:00

The whole thing has been shoddily planned, launched on a false prospectus, and is going to cost us billions for nothing.

They won’t do it, of course; too many egos invested already, too much national machismo. Five billion pounds and rising . . . Where’s my wallet?

I'm not talking about Iraq. I'm talking about the London 2012. OK, off topic, but read the article.

I confess that I absolutely loathe the Olympics. IOC officialdom is a mix of pomposity, and corruption. The opening ceremonies are dreadful. The whole thing reeks of hypocrisy and greed. I view the prospect of the Olympics being held in my city much as I would view the prospect of a root canal. We ought to pull out of the thing entirely.

A side benefit: Paris was second place. Presumably it would fall to them.

But can we really 'Go Big, Bold' in Afghanistan?

2006-11-22T15:56:00.000+02:00

There's a good article in the Globe and Mail by retired Canadian General Lewis Mackenzie in which he argues that in order to get the job done we need to send another 30,000 troops to the country. That seems low to me if, as has been widely argued, the occupation of Iraq (pop. 26,783,383, land area 437,072 sq.km.) needed something like 350,000 to be done right. Afghanistan is more populous with 31,000,000 people and larger (land area 647,500 sq.km.). Why would a force of ca. 70,000 (now there are 30,000 NATO troops, including 12,000 Americans, there already plus 11,000 Americans not under NATO command) be up to the job? Is the situation that much more benign in Afghanistan? But I defer to Mackenzie on this since he as a retired Major General is no doubt a better judge of this than I am as a 'retired' Master Corporal.

The number's not the issue, however; we can all agree it should bea lot bigger than it is now. Mackenzie, in my opinion, hits the nail on the head when he says NATO's future is...

hanging in the balance, fence-sitting NATO partners have to be convinced, coerced, intimidated to live up to their end of the contract they signed when they joined during more peaceful times. Failure to do so will signal the end of a 57-year-old alliance that failed when faced with its first real test in the field.

Too right. Sadly, I'm pessimistic about the chances of a greater contribution from the rest of Europe, either in quantity or quality. Will any of the EU 'core' France, Germany, Spain or Italy pony up more troops? Statements like this from the foreign affairs adviser to Socialist presidential candidate Segoline Royal make me very doubtful:

...the question the English have to answer is - do the English consider the English Channel to be wider than the Atlantic?

We on the Continent have the right to deplore the fact that Great Britain appears to consider the Channel wider.

Mackenzie accuses 'Old Europe', to use Don Rumsfeld's term, of fence sitting while 'Old Europe' reckons it's the British who are fence sitting and that the choice for Europe whether or not to be '...vassals of the United States, do we want to be a 51st state?'

Feh. With that being the atmosphere amongst the allies I have low expectations.

Zinni and Batiste on Iraq

2006-11-15T13:48:00.000+02:00

Retired Generals Anthony Zinni and John Batiste have been prominent critics of the conduct of the War in Iraq. In fact in Zinni's case he was against going in in the first place. Both, however, have come out against troop withdrawals from Iraq.

Zinni argues that argues that any substantial reduction of forces would accelerate the slide to civil war.

The logic of this is you put pressure on Maliki and force him to stand up to this. Well, you can't put pressure on a wounded guy. There is a premise that the Iraqis are not doing enough now, that there is a capability that they have not employed or used. I am not so sure they are capable of stopping sectarian violence.

In fact, he argues for deploying more forces to 'regain momentum' in the effort of stabilizing Iraq, creating more jobs, fostering political reconciliation and developing more effective Iraqi security forces.

Batiste agrees, calling Congressional proposals for troop withdrawals 'terribly naïve.' Before considering withdrawal, the U.S. needs to take an array of steps, including alleviating unemployment in Iraq, securing its long and porous borders, enlisting more cooperation from tribal leaders, stepping up efforts to train Iraq's security forces, engaging Iraq's neighbors and weakening or destroying the militias. He also says we need to deploy more troops.

I don't disagree. I just wonder where these new troops are going to come from.

Update: Theo has a post on Sen Carl Levin's call for phased troop withdrawals which I believe is what Zinni and Batiste are referring to as naive.

It's not an addiction, they pay me to be here!

2006-11-15T13:44:00.000+02:00

Here's an interesting article on Internet addiction. I can appreciate how this might be a problem for some. For my part, however, while I certainly qualify as an Internet 'heavy user' I don't see the downside.

Excessive Internet use should be defined not by the number of hours spent online but "in terms of losses," said Maressa Hecht Orzack, a Harvard University professor and director of Computer Addiction Services at McLean Hospital in Belmont, Mass., founded in 1995. "If it is a loss [where] you are not getting to work, and family relationships are breaking down as a result around it and this is something you can't handle, then it's too much."

Of course I'm in the lucky position that being on-line actually is my work. Which means that I could make the argument that requiring me to come in to the College physically means I do less work. But it's more than that. My family and friends are spread all over the world yet I correspond with them on a regular basis via chat or Skype. For me it's all positive and no negative. Did I say I was lucky?

Resistance is futile, it is useless to resist
I think we're really at the very beginning of where the Internet is going to take us. For a glimpse of the future I highly recommend Charles Stross's novel Accelerando which is freely available online (despite being a best seller in hard copy--take a lesson publishers). In one scene, Manfred, the main character of the book which is set in the near future, is plunged into a crisis when he is mugged for his 'glasses' (actually the interface between his mind and the computers which he uses to connect to the web) and finds himself literally unable to think because so much of his 'mind', his knowledge and processing ability, actually exists outside his skull. I haven't gone that far obviously; but still there is an eerie resonance to this.

When I want to know something more often than not I hive off a mini-mind of sorts:

If it's a basic informational point I do a simple Internet search, which is to say I send out a little digital agent which collects all the information available, orders it in accordance with a certain logic set by me (usually the Google default), and presents it.

If it's a more complex thing I may search a bibliographic or other database such as IBSS.

And if it's really complex I might fire off a question on any one of a number of ongoing discussion forums or email rings which I'm a part of and see what comes back.

Essentially this is distributed thinking. Nothing new there you say. We did all those things, more or less, before the Internet. True, but now we do it faster, much faster. If you are connected then I can safely assume that if you do not know, say, the date of the Battle of Poltava, the size of the Chinese defence budget in purchasing power parity, or the basic outlines of the career of Field Marshal Slim, or whatever, then in a few minutes you will. Essentially, everyone is now that boring uncle who knew all the trivia about everything.

But there's more to it still: increasingly, I find myself using Google desktop search to find things on my computer which I myself have written or archived, which is to say I use it in a sense for processing my own thoughts.

Now clearly this is rudimentary stuff but the fact is that we're already mixing our consciousness with machines. At the present time the part of you, or me anyway, that works outside of my skull is a minuscule fraction of that which works inside. Yet given that computers are evolving many orders of magnitude faster than human beings, getting faster, more powerful, and more connected all the time, how much longer will it be before the 'meat-me' is the lesser quantity while the 'digital-me' does all the intellectual heavy-lifting? In other words, in a couple of decades we may be at a point where going offline will feel something like being thrust into a sensory deprivation chamber or having your head pounded with a rubber mallet.

Minus all the hardware (for rubber fetishists only, I reckon) I don't think I'd mind being this guy too much.

Bring it on, I say. Borg me.

Almost forgot...

2006-11-10T23:00:00.000+02:00

Happy Birthday US Marine Corps

That didn't take long...

2006-11-10T19:26:00.000+02:00

Why am I not surprised by this? I think it was right for Rumsfeld to go. He should have been fired long ago. But I've got to say stuff like this Donald Rumsfeld: The War Crimes Case makes my blood boil. What I'd really like to hear now is some clear thinking about how to turn things around in Iraq or, in lieu of that, how to get out. What we don't need is some kind of revenge of the granola-gobblers taking over public life until the next presidential election.

I told you turn LEFT!

2006-11-10T19:22:00.000+02:00

I wonder how often this happened?

2006-11-10T19:12:00.000+02:00

I hope they made it back. One always hears of bombers limping back minus chunks of wing or fuselage. Imagine being the tail gunnner. As if AAA and enemy fighters weren't bad enough, your own guys try to waste you with a 500 pound bomb.

Screw the headline just give me the footnote

2006-11-10T18:30:00.000+02:00

Consider the following. A poll is conducted of Afghans concerning their attitudes towards 'democracy, security, poppy cultivation, and the 2005 parliamentary elections -- as well as attitudes towards governing institutions, the role of women and Islam in society, and the impact of media.'

The New York Times reports:
Afghans Losing Faith in Nation’s Path, Poll Shows

The Daily Times reports: Afghan optimism falls sharply, poll shows

Malaysia Sun reports: Poll says more Afghans becoming negative

Canada.com reports: U.S.-funded survey: Afghans losing confidence in their country's direction

But USA Today reports: Poll: Afghans express confidence in country's direction, security

So what are we to believe? Answer: none of them! Be your own reporter. Read the survey yourself. Make up your own mind. This is the reason why I can't watch the news without my laptop up and running anymore. In the information age 'fact-checking the media's ass' is basic self-defence.

This is a good thing

2006-11-08T20:53:00.000+02:00

Rumsfeld replaced after poll loss

This is good too: Conn. Sen. Joe Lieberman wins re-election

Sadly, Lieberman would have been my choice to replace Rumsfeld.

This sucks!

2006-11-08T16:15:00.000+02:00

In the spirit of a recent series of posts on Nick Dymond's blog about approaches of various arms and services to planning I offer this informed contribution to debate:

Blast from the past: How to spot a communist

2006-11-08T13:41:00.000+02:00

Those of you studying the early days of the Cold War right now might find this interesting.

Iraq war games

2006-11-07T17:45:00.000+02:00

You are all very familiar with the National Security Archives from your work on the Cold War in Module 2. If you haven't beeen back there lately have a look at the new addition to the collection: Post Saddam Iraq: The War Game

Excerpt from an article about it:

WASHINGTON - The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue.

In its "Desert Crossing" games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs.

The documents came to light Saturday through a Freedom of Information Act request by the George Washington University's National Security Archive, an independent research institute and library.

"The conventional wisdom is the U.S. mistake in Iraq was not enough troops," said Thomas Blanton, the archive's director. "But the Desert Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops on the ground."

Thinking is research too, Part 2

2006-11-07T12:33:00.000+02:00

In comments on my previous post on this subject Theo commented:

True also for academics. How can you finish that paper, when you've not read that possibly crucial/probably irrelevant book on X!

Which is absolutely true. It's funny, I just pulled my copy of Leo Strauss's History of Political Philosophy off the shelf in order to look up something on John Stuart Mill. Each chapter of the book is dedicated to a particularly significant political philosopher and they are presented in chronological order as follows:

Thucydides
Plato
Xenophon
Aristotle
Marcus Tullius Cicero
St Augustine
Alfarabi
Moses Maimonides
St Thomas Aquinas
Marsilius of Padua
Niccolo Machiavelli
...

Let's stop there and consider that the printing press was only invented in 1440 so by the time Machiavelli died in 1527 there weren't that many books around to be read--and certainly not much on political philosophy. Therefore, I'm confident that I've read more about the subject than Machiavelli. In fact, I think I've possibly read more about it than everyone on that list combined--and political philiosophy is not my field. I think that this is a nice illustration that sometimes quantity does not have a quality of its own--indeed sheer quantity of reading is a poor measure of the quality of understanding. Don't get me wrong, there's a link between the two, but having read more than Machiavelli does not make me a shrewder political thinker! Professor Mats Berdal, a colleague here in the ddepartment told me once that his approach to teaching international relations to undergraduates was to get them to read one good book on the subject deeply, in that case The Anarchical Society by Hedley Bull. This has got me thinking, if I had to assign one book for a course on modern warfare what would it be? Hmmm... I haven't got a good answer for that. Any suggestions?

Exploring the Language of Post-Sept. 11 U.S. Policy

2006-11-06T19:21:00.000+02:00

Here's quite a good series of interviews exploring the meaning of some terms which have come into common usage since 911: Jihad, Islamofascism, War on Terror, Imperialism and Democracy.

ED 209

2006-11-06T18:13:00.000+02:00

Korean scientists have developed an armed robot. There're quite a few such projects in the works. I expect that we will see rather a lot more such developments in relatively near future.

Great Britons

2006-11-06T16:39:00.000+02:00

Nick Dymond has a great idea:

Morgan Stanley are running one of their Great Britons Awards this year. As is usual it will probably be won by some 'celebrity' or other. However, the word on the UK Defence net is 'what if we get together and pull a team effort voting thing to get someone worthwhile nominated?', 'what if we all vote for that chap/chappess who routinely puts it all on the line in some of the most dangerous places on earth for seemingly little in return?'.

I am referring to the British Soldier of course. If you agree that the British Soldier deserves a bit of recognition, go to the Great Britons 06 website (link) and vote for 'Tommy Atkins' under the 'public life' section.

Wikepedia - 'Tommy Atkins'

Go vote!

Thinking is research too

2006-11-06T16:28:00.000+02:00

Over on his blog Pip has a post about keeping up with all the reading and discussions. Have a look. My advice: take a walk. Seriously. It's easy to get so caught up in trying to keep up with everything that has been written that you don't stop to think about what it all means. That's not right. In your essays I always urge you when faced with a choice between depth and breadth to go for depth. Similarly when you are researching bear in mind that thinking is research too. The classic graduate student procrastination according to Mat Groening's classic 'Life is Hell' strip:

Statistics

2006-11-01T15:03:00.000+02:00

Disraeli is reputed to have said 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.' And Andrew Lang wrote 'He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts-for support rather than illumination.'

I like these quotes, probably because I am instinctively sceptical of the sort of social scientists who claim special significance for their research on the basis of it being quantitative. I am a qualitative analysis man. It takes good technique and skill to measure something but the real genius is picking what's worth measuring and figuring out what it means. Still, it's good to be conversant with stats and very handy to be able to generate rough comparative measures with the click of a mouse.

Looking for a rough indicator measure of militarization? Try generating a table of armed forces personnel per capita using NationMaster, 'a massive central data source and a handy way to graphically compare nations.'

For more specific searches and comparisons try the Facts on International Relations and Security Trends database which is provided free on the phenomenally useful website of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Update:
Strange, the first thing I looked at after writing this post was this New York Times article 'Military Charts Movement of Conflict in Iraq Toward Chaos'. I've no quarrel with the veracity of the claim that Iraq is moving towards chaos. I just wonder how one quantifies 'hostile rhetoric' or 'problems with ineffective police'. And does assigning these things a number make the analysis more scientific?

Maps

2006-10-31T20:56:00.000+02:00

You can illustrate a lot with a map. Here's a good one, for example:

I also use the Perry-Castaneda Map Library frequently.

The UN Cartographic Service is also excellent.

How to Cut and Run

2006-10-31T15:15:00.000+02:00

I recently met William Odom at the IISS conference in Geneva. I have a great deal of admiration for him as a soldier and a scholar. He has been making the argument that the United States should cut his losses and get out of Iraq practically since the day the occupation began. He reprises it here: How to Cut and Run.

Odom is not your typical anti-Iraq war type, as you'd expect for a former head of the NSA and Army intelligence chief. Most untypically, he doesn't just say get out but discusses how to do it, it amounts to a four step programme:

1. admit that we screwed up
2. involve Iraq's neighbours
3. cooperate with Iran, drop resistance to its nuclear arms programme
4. focus on Palestinian issue as a foundation for Middle East peace.

I find it difficult to agree with him on points 2, 3 & 4. Iraq's neighbours are already involved. I think we don't know nearly enough about how Islam in general and Iran in particular understand the utility of nuclear force--put differently how they conceive of deterrence--to feel sanguine about an Iranian bomb. And as far as I'm concerned the less attention paid to Israel-Palestine by everyone the better. That conflict has been prolonged and exacerbated by every past intervention not hastened toward its resolution.

I am reluctantlly in agreement with point 1, however. As Odom argues:

'Rapid troop withdrawal and abandoning unilateralism will have a sobering effect on all interested parties. Al Qaeda will celebrate but find that its only current allies, Iraqi Baathists and Sunnis, no longer need or want it. Iran will crow but soon begin to worry that its Kurdish minority may want to join Iraqi Kurdistan and that Iraqi Baathists might make a surprising comeback.

Although European leaders will probably try to take the lead in designing a new strategy for Iraq, they will not be able to implement it. This is because they will not allow any single European state to lead, the handicap they faced in trying to cope with Yugoslavia's breakup in the 1990s. Nor will Japan, China or India be acceptable as a new coalition leader. The U.S. could end up as the leader of a new strategic coalition — but only if most other states recognize this fact and invite it to do so.'

One of the most disastrous outcomes of the war has been the collapse of Western unity. It's not as though it hasn't happened before but I don't think the split has ever been this profound.

Tenure denied, Dr Jones!

2006-10-31T15:05:00.000+02:00

Geez, what does a guy have to do to get promoted around here? This made me laugh.

Thus begins an argument in War in the Modern World

2006-10-30T11:24:00.000+02:00

Via Tim Blair

Virtual war

2006-10-25T12:02:00.000+02:00

I'm fascinated by the way in which technological change is affecting modern warfare. By and large my research has focused on changes at 'the pointy end'. So, for instance, I've been writing a lot about the Revolution in Military Affairs and its derivative concepts Network-Centric Warfare and Information Warfare. But I'm more and more interested these days not just in how we fight wars but how we conceptualize them societally, which ultimately feeds back into the way we fight and vice versa. In other words, I'm thinking a little less about changes at the pointy end of the spear and a little more about how the spear as a whole is changing. Specifically, I'm researching two things which are a direct outgrowth of the IT revolution.

The first is the phenomenon of milblogging, ie a blog about war like this one, but written by a soldier in the field as opposed to an academic in a comfy London office. I think the impact of milblogging is significant in several respects. For one thing it makes it all the more difficult for theatre commanders to establish and control a narrative of the conflict. There's been a lot of discussion over the years about the impact of the media on warfare, but we are only slowly waking up to the fact that it is now conceivable for soldiers to simply 'cut out the middle man' and report directlly their experience through the medium of a blog. Indeed this is already somewhat the case, as you can see in this article by uber-milblogger Michael Yon in which he points out that there are just 7 embedded reporters in Iraq right now. I find that surprisingly low. We're not just talking about text either, soldiers post videos and photos. There's a vast and growing genre of such 'tribute' videos as this one, almost always set to Heavy Metal tracks it seems, army humour like this British minor classic, as well gun camera footage such as this (warning: graphic), over on YouTube . Most is pretty tame illustrative of the long recognized fact that 99% of the experience of war is boredom--sitting around waiting; some of it is pretty dreadful (link is to an article).

So what's new about any of this? Well, nothing and a lot, depending on your viewpoint. Dreadful things have always happened in war. Cameras small enough to fit in a soldier's pocket have been around for years. What's different is that in the Nokia Age images which in the old days might have ended up in a shoebox in the attic are now shared and infinitely reproduced digitally over the Internet. 'Warfare', wrote Andrew Marr writing after the publication of stories based on photos--fake as it turned out--about abuse of Iraqi prisoners by British troops 'has always depended on a rampart of silence, a wall of willed incomprehension, between civilians at home and those killing. In a small way, the arrival of digital photographs has broken through that wall.' We're beginning to see how this changes things. I suspect, among other things, a main effect we are seeing is maintaining political will. We already, according to some, suffer from a societal attention deficit disorder. This would seem to be a complicating factor.

The second, and related, thing which strikes me as potentially quite significant is the increasing sophistication of video games. There's a very practical military dimension to this: games are an increasingly invaluable training aid. But there's a nother dimension: computer games like 'America's Army' or, somewhat less so, XBox's 'Full Spectrum Warrior', play a role in society akin to the World War 2 Frank Capra series of films 'Why we Fight'. I wouldn't want to overstretch the argument here but at least in some respects there is an apparent convergence between war and video games. James Der Derian's Virtuous War: Mapping the Military-Industrial-Media-Entertainment covers some of this ground, but is rather flawed . He's a good writer, for a post-modernist, but not terribly convincing on operational military matters . Ed Halter's From Sun Tzu to XBox: War and Video Games, is better though it's appeal is possibly greater to gamers than soldiers. But this US Army video about the Future Combat System is a nice illustration of the point. I wonder if army recruiters ask applicants if they play a lot of video games and if they do whether that's considered a good thing. I suspect it would. I read somewhere (can't remember) that soldiers who had played a lot of first person shooter games were ideal for operating the remote weapons on armoured humvees. They were less likely to get disoriented and more confortable with the constant scanning necessary for useful observation through a narrow field of view.

What's really interesting, however, is not the tactical shoot 'em up games but games such as the one described in thsi article which are more about real-world challenges involving moral complexity, problem solving and cultural understanding. I suspect that this sort of thing is more valuable in the long run. Actually, I think I'd like too do something like thsi in our programme!

Gloom all around

2006-10-24T22:11:00.000+02:00

Niall Fergusson joins the doomsayers in the LA Times today with an article entitled 'America's Brittle Empire'. He argues that the US is a 'strategic couch potato' sufferinga crucial financial deficit, attention deficit, and manpower deficit. Thus he concludes,

In short, we seem doomed by domestic politics and demography to re-enact Vietnam in Iraq. The only question is what age the 300-millionth American will be when the last American is airlifted out.

I think the manpower deficit is crucial. Financial deficit is crucial too--but this can change rapidly. I'm confused by attention deficit though. His last line basically says we'll be there for another 18 years before we admit defeat which doesn't strike me as attention deficit disorder so much as repetitive brain injury caused by too much pounding one's head upon a brick wall.

In short, I'm unconvinced.

Happy UN Day!

2006-10-24T12:04:00.000+02:00

Today is UN Day. Hurrah! A whole day to celebrate its achievements. Where to start? There's so many:

its swift and decisive action to halt Rwandan genocide

its stolid defence of the Srebrenica safe haven

its scrupulously upright management of the Oil-for-Food scheme

its gallantry towards Congolese refugess under its protection

Here's a proud moment:

Nice photo. I think it's particularly significant in light of the fact that yesterday was the 23rd anniversary of this event.

An attack committed by the precursor to Hezbollah headed by Nasrallah.

UPDATE 25 October 2006:

OK, I was harsh on the UN. Theo has promised to come by and correct me. In the meantime, let me get in another dig. There was a good joke going around when they were debating who would be the next General Secretary after Kofi Annan. Some wags proposed Tony Soprano:

He'd get more done and steal less!

But in the spirit of fairness I'll acknowledge that financial rectitude in Iraq hasn't exactly been improved that much since the occupation made Oil for Food redundant: Mother of all heists.

Wierder than wierd

2006-10-16T23:14:00.000+02:00

Good Nyborg:

Canada troops battle 10-foot Afghan marijuana plants

I want to see the campaign medal for this one.

Memory lane

2006-10-12T22:53:00.000+02:00

Over on Theo's blog I was chatting about non-standard uses of military technology which got me reminiscing a bit about a happy day in my my short spell as a soldier on the range with a heavy machine gun. Thankfully, I've never fired one in anger, let alone had anyone fire at me! I still think, however, that there're are few things more stress relieving than machine-gunning. Pounding a punching bag pales in comparison. Rather than repeat myself, go look if you've a mind to.

Anyway, I promised to post a picture if I could find it. I couldn't find the exact one I was looking for--that one was with a .50 cal which makes this one look like a bit of a pipsqueak. But I found this one of me on the same day with a .30 cal (actually rechambered for 7.62mm), ca. 1988 (I'm the trigger man):

But then while strolling down memory lane I came across this picture, me ca. 1974:

I'd forgotten about that one. This illustrates a few things about me, I think. For example, I'm morbidly goal-oriented. I generally end up where I intended going, eventually, even if I forget having resolved on a plan. The subconscious is a wonderful thing! This is also how I ended up teaching in the Department of War Studies. I decided just after that first picture was taken that I'd better go to university because soldiering in the Canadian Forces wasn't going to be very satisfying for me after all. I think what clinched it was that it's the same damn gun in both pictures, and it was old in 1974. I suspect I took the lesson that I was taking the idea of warfighting a little more seriously than the people paying me were. So, I managed to convince the army to pay for me to go to university where among the first books I read was The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy by Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies. Now that's a cool thing, says I. Next thing I know here I am telling you to read something cool. If I could just get them to install a heavy machine gun in my office--I'd machinegun for peaceful purposes only, promise!--my life would be complete.

Hey, you army guys should invite me on a firepower demo. It might increase your grade. Wait. Damn! I'm teaching civilians and air force guys this term. Hmmm... if I get a ride in a jet I could perhaps an arrange a degree to arrive by first class post. ;)