Iraq Plan B

Here's a good article by Senator Richard Lugar on Plan B for Iraq 'Beyond Baghdad'. I think it's worth listening to Lugar on security matters. The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program which he created with Democratic Senator Sam Nunn was just about the smartest security initiative undertaken by any country after the Cold War. I think he is right in characterizing the 'surge' in Iraq this way:

We need to recast the geo-strategic reference points of our Iraq policy. Some commentators have compared the Bush plan to a "Hail Mary" pass in football -- a desperate heave deep down the field by a losing team at the end of the game. Actually, a far better analogy for the Bush plan is a draw play on third down with 20 yards to go in the first quarter. The play does have a chance of working if everything goes perfectly, but it is more likely to gain a few yards and set up a punt on the next down, after which the game can be continued under more favorable circumstances.

Translation: it probably won't work but it may leave us set up for a better game afterward. Clearly this is a positive spin. I have great respect for the sentiments expressed by the troops in the report below. But my gut feeling is that the counterinsurgency in Iraq is irrecoverable with the 'surge' which is in reality more like a dribble--too little, too late. So, what to do after? Lugar's assessment is similar to my own:

...we need to plan for a potent redeployment of U.S. forces in the region to defend oil assets, target terrorist enclaves, deter adventurism by Iran and provide a buffer against regional sectarian conflict. In the best case, we could supplement bases in the Middle East with troops stationed outside urban areas in Iraq. Such a redeployment would allow us to continue training Iraqi troops and delivering economic assistance, but it would not require us to interpose ourselves between Iraqi sectarian factions.

Where I tend to part company with Lugar is with the idea of continuing training of troops and economic assistance. When we stop interposing ourselves between Iraqi sectarian factions the country will descend (deeper) into civil war. Which raises the question which troops are we going to train? To whom are we going to provide economic assistance? The Shi'ites or the Sunnis? Staying out of that fight is a good idea.